Inside Putin's submarine fleet enhancements as new threats emerge to NATO security

Russia's Escalating Threat [0:00]

• Putin's actions raise questions about his control over Russian forces, necessitating a robust response from NATO.
• Supplying weapons to Ukraine is identified as a key robust response.
• The conflict has intensified, with both sides "taking the gloves off," leading to mutual battering.

  "Once Ukraine started hitting Russian cities, and you've both seen that both sides now have just taken the gloves off and are battering each other, something happens inside NATO where there are actually a lot of casualties rather than infrastructure and arson attacks, and that would change, potentially tip the balance of the decision-making inside NATO about what the response should be."

The Yassin-Class Submarine Threat [0:59]

• The new Yassin-class submarine presents a challenge to NATO's long-standing strategic problem of anti-submarine defense.
• This class is a nuclear-powered attack submarine, distinct from nuclear-powered nuclear launch submarines.
• The submarine displaces approximately 13,800 tons and is armed with cruise missiles, including anti-ship missiles with a range of about 1,000 miles.

  "Now, that is, and because it's quieter, it's more difficult to track, and submarine warfare is all about maintaining the track, identifying the submarine where you can, and there's often choke points, where you concentrate your resources at those submarines, and then tracking them when they get into deeper water once you've maintained it, you've got the track and maintain it."

NATO's Anti-Submarine Strategy [3:14]

• Submarine warfare is a game of cat and mouse, with submarines emerging from the Kola Peninsula and navigating through specific gaps.
• These gaps include the Bear Gap (shallower water) and the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap.
• NATO historically concentrated resources around the GIUK gap to track and identify Russian submarines entering the Atlantic.

  "So they're your two areas where NATO, and especially NATO in the Cold War, would concentrate around the Iceland-UK gap, and try to catch up, maintain and identify the track there, and then follow them into the Atlantic for this game of cat and mouse."

Countering the Yassin-Class [5:01]

• The Yassin-class submarine makes tracking more difficult, requiring NATO to deploy more assets and improve coordination.
• NATO's Arctic Sentry mission, launched in February 2026, aims to enhance coordination between the US, UK, and Norway.
• The increased difficulty in tracking pushes the problem closer to Russia, necessitating more assets and resources.

  "So it's pushed the problem closer to Russia, and therefore you have to have more assets. Those assets need to be on time, on target, burn through fuel, burn through queue time, maintenance, etc. So that makes the problem just that bit more difficult."

Subsea Sabotage and Cable Vulnerability [7:18]

• The subsea sabotage issue highlights the vulnerability of undersea cables, particularly around Ireland.
• US, French, and UK vessels are involved in tracking potential subsurface and surface vessels near these cables.
• Methods of sabotage can range from sophisticated subsurface vessels to crude methods like dragging anchors with fishing vessels.

  "And again, and sometimes they're done, you know, it's even more benign. And we've seen this happen in other places where you use fishing vessels and just drag an anchor. So it's very difficult to, to say for sure, exactly."

Information Warfare and Resilience [9:21]

• Resilience and preparing populations for potential armed conflict are critical.
• Russia has effectively utilized social media to influence populations, while Western nations have neglected public messaging since the Cold War.
• Controlling the information space is vital, a lesson learned from the Cold War when Russian media was restricted in the UK.

  "So I think there's a whole massive piece about resilience, about the rights and duties of citizenship, about controlling the information space, you know, back in the Cold War, we didn't allow the Russians to have a TV station inside the UK."

Escalating Russian Sabotage Tactics [11:44]

• Russian sabotage campaigns have evolved, moving to the online environment and recruiting individuals through platforms like Signal.
• Initially, these involved low-cost, small-scale attacks, but have escalated in sophistication.
• Recent attacks, such as the Leipzig incident, suggest more direct control and links back to Moscow, targeting companies supplying Ukraine.

  "It looks like there's more direct control or direct links back to Moscow. Certainly the, the Leipzig attack, that would be pretty difficult for someone with no experience to be able to basically get those components in and then start to plan an operation like that."

NATO's Response and Deterrence [14:35]

• NATO needs robust responses, including potentially invoking Article 4 and Article 5, in response to Russian attacks.
• The goal is to produce interceptors at scale, whether drones or missiles, to form a defensive shield.
• Developing deep strike capacity is crucial to restore conventional deterrence, as Russia may exploit a perceived lack of conventional offensive power.

  "So the Germans are investing billions in this now, numerous different platforms, some of them looking at the Ukrainians, um, about how they kind of come up with their own version of the tomahawk."

The Winter Threat and Escalation [17:45]

• Russia is expected to target Ukraine's energy supply grid and railways during the winter, with significant implications for the population.
• The conflict has entered an escalatory phase, with both sides actively attacking each other.
• There is a concern that miscalculation or accidents could lead to significant casualties, potentially tipping the balance of decision-making within NATO.

  "The Russians will look at any kind of supplies of either drones, which the UK is supplying, you know, up to 120,000 by the end of this year, apparently. And also the, the plans for the, the, the scalp, some of the components for it and the, the supply of those weapons."

Air Defense Asymmetry [19:32]

• There is an asymmetry in air defense production, with Russia able to produce more missiles monthly than NATO interceptors.
• The interception rate for advanced missiles like Patriot has dropped, partly due to limited supply.
• Increasing production lines for interceptors like Patriot and Aster is a short-term necessity.

  "So really, yeah, the short term issue is just get, procure, make, increase the production lines of the Patriot, uh, interceptors and the others like the French Aster, et cetera."

Potential for State-Sponsored Terrorism [21:13]

• The threat vectors include intensifying current activities and potentially moving towards state-sponsored terrorist attacks.
• Attribution for such attacks would be difficult, and they would likely remain in the sub-threshold realm.
• The primary aims of these actions are to impose costs on supporters of Ukraine and disrupt the supply of military aid.

  "The other one is to disrupt the supply of kit going to Ukraine. That's our two aims. And so, yeah, I think that that's where you'll see the most likely vectors are an intense intensification of what we've seen potentially with the move towards some sort of state sponsored terrorist attack, but you know, again, cause it would be pretty difficult to attribute and it would probably be sub threshold."

Miscalculation and NATO Response [22:38]

• A significant risk lies in the potential for miscalculation or accidents leading to substantial military or civilian casualties.
• Such an event could drastically alter decision-making within NATO regarding its response.
• The current situation is described as an "escalatory phase" where both sides are actively engaged in conflict.

  "The real issue here is if, if someone miscalculates badly, or if there is a lot, something goes wrong and there's a lot or a number of military or civilian casualties, what does that mean? You know, if something happens inside nature where there are actually a lot of casualties rather than infrastructure and arson attacks, uh, uh, happening."