Is China seeking to copy Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade around Taiwan? | 101 East Documentary

Al Jazeera English

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Video Summary

China is increasingly testing a "gray zone" strategy against Taiwan, mimicking blockade tactics that threaten to strangle the island's energy-dependent economy. By utilizing coast guard vessels and military maneuvers to assert jurisdiction over Taiwan's coastal waters, Beijing is effectively rehearsing a de facto quarantine that could bypass the complexities of a full-scale naval blockade while still exerting suffocating pressure on the democratic nation.

This mounting tension is compounded by deep uncertainty regarding U.S. security guarantees under the Trump administration, forcing Taiwan to confront the possibility of defending itself alone. As citizens and officials grapple with the reality of daily threats, the island is shifting toward a "not today" deterrence strategy, emphasizing civil defense and military readiness to discourage an increasingly centralized and unpredictable Chinese leadership.

Short Highlights

China is actively rehearsing blockade scenarios, including "gray zone" tactics that use Coast Guard and military vessels to assert control over Taiwan's waters.
Taiwan relies on imported fuels for 80% of its electricity, making it highly vulnerable to a maritime blockade that could exhaust energy supplies in weeks.
The U.S. commitment to Taiwan's defense remains ambiguous, with the Trump administration signaling that security guarantees are subject to negotiation.
Civil defense interest is surging in Taiwan, evidenced by the popularity of the drama "Zero Day Attack" and increased enrollment in survival and first-aid training.
Experts identify several factors complicating a potential Chinese invasion:
- A sluggish Chinese economy and internal political turmoil.
- The inherent difficulty of sustaining a blockade across the wide Taiwan Strait.
- The potential for Taiwan to resist through decentralized, village-by-village defense.
- The "not today" deterrence policy aimed at making the cost of war prohibitive for Beijing.

Key Details

The Shadow of a Blockade [0:01:15]

China is increasingly using "gray zone" tactics to pressure Taiwan, simulating blockades that target the island's three major ports.
These maneuvers serve as a testing ground for potential future operations to cut off the island from international trade and aid.

There are signs China wants to copy Iran's blockade to pressure Taiwan. They've been simulating potential blockade.

The Wake-Up Call of Zero Day Attack [0:02:18]

The government-supported mini-series "Zero Day Attack" portrays a Chinese invasion to force citizens to confront the reality of war.
Despite initial investor fear of losing the Chinese market, the project found funding from anti-communist philanthropist Robert Cao.

The government supported the production to remind citizens that war could be a reality.

Gray Zone Tactics in Practice [0:04:21]

China has honed its ability to use Coast Guard, Navy, and militarized fishing vessels to harass and block vessels in the South China Sea.
Similar tactics are now being applied in the Taiwan Strait, where China claims sovereignty and demands identification from passing ships.

China has begun using similar tactics in the Taiwan Strait, sailing close to Taiwan shore, asserting it is Chinese sovereign territory.

The Economic Stakes [0:05:14]

Bloomberg Economics models suggest a conflict over the Taiwan Strait could cause $10 trillion in global losses and a 9.6% reduction in global GDP.
Taiwan's heavy reliance on imported LNG means a sustained blockade would lead to critical power shortages within weeks.

80% of our electricity generated by imported fuels, that include imported coal and gas.

Shifting Strategic Alliances [0:07:05]

Admiral Chen Yong-kun notes that while China could attempt a blockade, a "quarantine"—selectively stopping fuel-carrying ships—is a more likely initial tactic.
Donald Trump’s rhetoric, including praise for Xi Jinping and questioning of arms sales, has undermined long-standing security assumptions in Taipei.

He changed the rule of game. But depends on the three sides how to play, to adjust our self-position.

Preparing for the Worst [0:09:05]

Civil defense training, including first aid and drone awareness, has seen a surge in enrollment among Taiwanese civilians.
Weekend warriors and veterans are refreshing military skills, signaling a societal shift toward self-reliance in the face of potential invasion.

I think it's not necessarily preparing to fight, but thinking about these defence-related topics or how to do first aid or disaster relief.

The Deterrence Strategy [0:10:35]

Taiwan’s "not today" policy aims to keep the cost of aggression high for Beijing, hoping to deter Xi Jinping while he manages internal purges and economic woes.
The lack of a clear successor in China and the concentration of power in one man remain significant, unpredictable risks for the region.

We need to let him believe that at the end of the day, today is not a good day.