AI Predicts 2026

Nuclear Deterioration [00:02]

• The world's nine nuclear-armed states are modernizing their arsenals.
• The New START treaty, the last nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia, expires on February 5th, 2026.
• Diplomatic talks to update the treaty or include China have stalled.
• While voluntary adherence is possible, the absence of legal guardrails could increase military planners' risks and miscalculations.
• Tensions in the Western Pacific are rising, with incidents involving Chinese Coast Guard flags swarming US carriers, probing US responses and rattling Taiwan.

"On the surface, it looks like peak future. But under all that is this quiet question. What if 2026 is also the year the whole system starts to snap?"

Taiwan Blockade and Economic Fallout [04:55]

• China escalates tensions with maritime exercises around Taiwan, using coast guard and "fishing boats" to enforce a de facto trade quarantine.
• This quarantine chokes off Taiwan's imports and exports, particularly semiconductors, leading to stalls in production.
• A serious Taiwan blockade could reduce global GDP by approximately 2.8% in the first year, with losses estimated at $1.6 trillion for China and Taiwan alone.
• Stock markets plummet, especially for companies tied to chips, shipping, and Asian growth.
• Global economic warfare, including sanctions and export bans, is adopted as a response, scaling up previous trade disputes.

"A de facto trade quarantine quietly targeting its exports. Cargo ships headed for Taiwan get harassed, delayed, or turned back."

Chip Shock and Stagflation [07:16]

• Taiwan's TSMC produces over 90% of the world's most advanced chips, vital for numerous products.
• A blockade's impact amplifies the existing chip shortage, making new consoles, graphics cards, and repair parts impossible to obtain.
• Car factories and other industries reliant on chips face production halts and layoffs.
• Economists predict stagflation: a combination of high inflation and low or negative economic growth.
• Governments and corporations begin shifting supply chain priorities from cost to resilience, emphasizing regional manufacturing and backup suppliers.

"This is where economists start dropping the term stagflation again. That cursed mix of high inflation and low or negative growth."

Financial Instability and Crypto Crisis [09:20]

• Sanctions and tariffs increase the cost of imports, leading to a demand for more stable currencies like dollars, euros, or gold.
• Dollar-pegged stablecoins, a significant parallel financial system, face scrutiny over their backing and potential systemic risk during a crisis.
• A major stablecoin collapse could freeze payments, deplete company funds, and trigger panic in traditional markets.
• Governments respond with capital controls, new tariff rules, and crackdowns on exchanges and apps, increasing general economic unease.

"One digital dollar breaking can suddenly set off a chain reaction that shakes the whole system."

Coordinated Cyberattacks [11:12]

• Adversary states exploit global fragility with synchronized cyberattacks on core financial infrastructure, payment processors, banking systems, and the power grid.
• Attacks aim to corrupt data, leading to incorrect account balances, missing transfers, and ATM malfunctions.
• The stressed power grid exacerbates the chaos, with data centers and regional networks triggering alarms.
• The inability to trust financial ledgers undermines the perceived value of money itself.
• Trust in digital money and institutions begins to erode significantly.

"The real danger isn't just systems going down. It's data getting corrupted. If you can't trust the ledger, the record of who owns what. Money itself stops feeling real."

Extreme Heat and Infrastructure Strain [13:33]

• A brutal heat dome over North America, Europe, and Asia brings prolonged periods of temperatures above 104 degrees Fahrenheit.
• The power grid, already stressed by cyber issues, cannot handle increased demand for air conditioning, leading to rolling brownouts and power cuts in major cities.
• This leads to blackouts during major events like the FIFA World Cup, causing panic, stampedes, and looting.
• The extreme heat disrupts events and infrastructure, highlighting the vulnerability of systems to environmental factors.

"And in the end, the thing that takes out half the system is dumb, relentless heat. Not going to lie, that's kind of on brand for our species."

Drought and Food Insecurity [15:46]

• Long-term warming and an intense El Niño trigger severe droughts in key grain-growing regions globally.
• Crop yields plummet, irrigation and shipping rivers run low, and countries impose export bans or hoard agricultural supplies.
• Global food prices spike due to scarcity, leading to increased food bank demand and financial hardship for vulnerable populations.
• Millions in already fragile regions face acute hunger, pushing them towards conflict.
• Governments begin scaling back disaster response funding, leaving communities with thinner safety nets.

"Crop yields drop brutally. Rivers used for irrigation and shipping run low."

Geopolitical Instability and Disinformation [18:20]

• Russia tests NATO with increased cyberattacks, sabotage, and covert operations in Baltic states.
• A series of cyberattacks in Latvia disrupts power and rail systems, accompanied by disinformation campaigns and the emergence of anonymous militias.
• NATO faces internal division and political challenges, particularly from a US that is stretched thin and politically split.
• This geopolitical tension adds another layer of instability to already battered markets.

"Disinformation floods social media claiming there's an uprising of Russian speaking minorities. That NATO troops fired first and that nobody really knows what's happening."

Emergence of "Disease X" [19:41]

• The World Health Organization's "Disease X," a placeholder for a future pandemic pathogen, emerges.
• A Nipah-like zoonotic virus spreads easily, overwhelming health systems already weakened by previous crises.
• Budget cuts to health agencies and disaster preparedness result in slower responses and weaker surveillance.
• Basic survival skills, personal protective equipment, and sanitation become crucial.
• The pandemic exacerbates social paralysis, strains hospitals, and impacts upcoming elections with disinformation and fraud claims.

"So when disease X shows up, the system doesn't snap into action. It stumbles."

Global System "Hard Reset" [22:26]

• By December 2026, trust in digital money and large institutions has not fully recovered from the year's crises.
• There is a significant shift towards local economies, trade in hard assets like gold, and shorter supply chains.
• This marks a "hard reset" of the global economy, with more life occurring at the local level out of necessity.
• Skills like food production, repair, and medical aid become critically important for community survival.
• Resilience becomes the key differentiator between those who scrape by and those who fail to adapt to systemic failures.

"This is what our simulation calls a hard reset. The world doesn't go full Mad Max. There's still internet, trade, governments, but more of life happens at the local level by necessity, not idealism."