Blue sweeps Negeri Sembilan and Johor. What does it mean for Anwar? | CNA Correspondent

Internal Strife Rocks Malaysian Coalition [0:00]

• Malaysia's governing coalition is experiencing internal conflict, with partner Barisan Nasional (BN) defeating key figures from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Harapan (PH).
• In Negeri Sembilan, the Chief Minister and DAP Secretary-General Anthony Loke lost their seats to BN.
• This follows a similar pattern in Johor, where BN achieved a dominant victory against PH.

  "So, two elections, three weeks apart, in Malaysia's governing coalition, fighting itself both times."

The "Blue Wave" Gains Momentum [0:00]

• BN's alliance with Perikatan Nasional (PN) has been termed the "blue wave" or "darker blue wave" by BN Chairman Afmat Zahid Hamidi.
• This partnership aims to unite Malay votes by avoiding direct contests against each other.
• The "blue wave" appears to be gaining ground against Prime Minister Anwar's Pakatan Harapan coalition.

  "We have continued the blue wave, and now, the darker blue wave."

Voter Dissatisfaction Fuels "Blue Wave" [0:00]

• Voters are reportedly fed up with both federal and state governments for not adequately addressing the cost of living and the slow pace of reforms.
• Prime Minister Anwar is accused of over-promising and under-delivering.
• There is a perception among some Malays that Anwar relies too heavily on the Democratic Action Party (DAP), which they see as a threat to Islam and the Malay race.

  "At a time when people are generally very fed up, angry with the government, both federal and the state levels, you know, for not doing enough to help them cushion the cost of living and also the slow pace of reforms, they said Prime Minister Anwar over-promised and under-delivered."

Johor Election: A Different Story [0:00]

• In Johor, BN did not need external help, leveraging its status as a traditional UMNO stronghold.
• The campaign focused on the incumbent BN state government's record and economic momentum, including the Johor Singapore Special Economic Zone and the RTS link.
• Voters were reportedly happy with BN's governance, emphasizing continuity and economic progress.

  "So basically everything that the state government had done and they attribute this to what Barisan Nasenel had done."

Negeri Sembilan Election: Different Dynamics [0:00]

• In Negeri Sembilan, BN collaborated with parts of PN to avoid splitting the anti-PH vote.
• While both elections are grouped under the "blue wave," the underlying reasons differ.
• A common thread is PH's struggle to convince voters, despite governing at the federal level.

  "You know, there BN wasn't trying to prove that it can govern alone. It showed that it could work with parts of Perikatan Nasenel to avoid splitting that anti-PH vote."

Anwar Ibrahim's Limited Options [0:00]

• Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is attempting to buy time to turn things around before the next general election, likely in early 2028.
• The opposition, buoyed by momentum, is unlikely to wait, aiming to capitalize on their current advantage.
• Anwar faces a dilemma: removing BN from his cabinet risks collapsing the government, while BN ministers are unlikely to step down willingly due to their current influence and access to resources.

  "Can he get rid of them, throw them out from his cabinet? Can he do that now? And risking, you know, collapsing, so I'm crumbling down, and he will have to fall for a state election, not a state election, a national election."

Impact on Daily Life [0:00]

• For residents of Negeri Sembilan, the election results may not drastically alter daily life, but they desire better infrastructure and government efficiency.
• Rising costs, despite subsidies, remain a concern.
• In Johor, BN can now push ahead with campaign promises, focusing on translating investment figures into tangible improvements for ordinary citizens, such as higher-paying jobs and better public transportation.

  "They just want better infrastructure. They want the government to stop the wrangling and do their job, put a lid on the rising costs, you know, despite the huge petrol and diesel subsidies, because Malaysia is paying about one, two billion US dollars a month to do that."

State Wins Strengthen Federal Hand [0:00]

• State government control strengthens a party's political machinery and grassroots network ahead of general elections.
• BN's victories in Johor and Negeri Sembilan enhance its leverage within the unity government, even if the federal composition remains unchanged.
• BN's claim of being the winning coalition gives it more influence in policy and cabinet matters, though they remain committed to supporting PM Anwar until the end of the parliamentary term.

  "So for BN, these victories strengthen its hand inside the unity government. Of course, it doesn't change the composition at the federal level."

Unity Government Under Strain [0:00]

• Analysts question the long-term viability of the unity government, with partners acting as rivals at the state level.
• Negotiating substantive policies is expected to become increasingly difficult due to rising animosity.
• The demanding campaigning schedule is also taking a toll on Prime Minister Anwar.

  "But analysts are saying that it's getting going to harder and harder for them to negotiate. For example, substantive policies, how do you have the cohesiveness to decide on substantive policy matters?"

Malacca and Sarawak Elections [0:00]

• In Malacca, BN is expected to play a dominant role, potentially aiming for a clean sweep, with the "blue wave" likely to continue.
• However, seat allocation negotiations and the role of PAS present challenges.
• Sarawak's political landscape is distinct, with elections focusing more on local issues and the Gabongan Parti Sarawak (GPS) maintaining its autonomy within the unity government.

  "So Malacca has been a stronghold for BN all this while, just pretty much like Johor. The last day election in November 2021, it won 21 of the 28 seats in the State Assembly."

Push for Early General Election [0:00]

• Perikatan Nasional is reportedly pushing for an early general election, with Wawasan aiming to bridge BN and PN.
• Analysts predict the next general election could be held earlier than scheduled, possibly after the budget tabling in October.
• The upcoming budget vote will test Prime Minister Anwar's majority support in parliament.

  "Analysts that we've been talking to have been predicting that the general election, the next big fight, is going to be held earlier, simply because of what happened on the ground that we've seen in Griswepilan."

Stakes for Pakatan Harapan Parties [0:00]

• The electoral defeats have led to introspection within PH, with the DAP facing significant pressure.
• DAP Secretary-General Anthony Loke, who lost his seat after 13 years, may step down to take responsibility.
• The DAP's special congress is seen as a referendum on its position within the PH coalition.

  "So his fate hangs in the balance. So is the party, the future of DAP."

BN's Comeback or Deja Vu? [0:00]

• Analysts debate whether BN's success represents a genuine comeback or a repeat of past state-level wins that didn't translate federally.
• The Johor election was seen as localized, while the Negeri Sembilan result tested a new BN-PN configuration.
• BN may adopt a more cautious approach this time, having learned from past strategies that backfired.

  "So if you talk about whether we will go back to what it was in 2022 and I think what you mean by that is what we saw after the Johor state election was just, BN was riding on that momentum after winning the previous state election."

Voter Apathy and Political Fatigue [0:00]

• There is a sense of voter apathy due to frequent elections and political instability since 2020.
• Many voters feel disillusioned, believing their votes won't lead to significant change.
• The constant political drama has led to people opting out of the political process.

  "People are saying, I'm so sick of this, you know, whatever, it doesn't matter, my vote doesn't really count because things are not going to change."

BN-PN Cooperation: A Test of Endurance [0:00]

• The cooperation between BN and PN, while successful in state elections, faces questions about its long-term sustainability.
• Internal party meetings for UMNO, PKR, and DAP are upcoming, with significant stakes for PH's component parties.
• The inclusion of PAS in state governments, like Negeri Sembilan, will be a test of the BN-PN alliance.

  "So now it's distributing the prize victory now, you know, that we'll be keenly watching, whether Islamic party pass, Barisan Assemblyman will be invited to, you know, to join the state ex-co in the Gris and Bilam, and that will be a test, you know, how the cooperation of past is going with the Barisan Nacional is going to go."

DAP's Future in Question [0:00]

• The DAP faces a "rough awakening" after electoral defeats, with accusations of being anti-Malay and anti-Islam.
• Anthony Loke's failure to defend his seat after 22 years highlights the challenges the party faces.
• The upcoming DAP special congress is crucial for determining the party's direction and its role within the coalition.

  "So all these were being used against him. So his fate hangs in the balance. So is the party, the future of DAP."

The Million-Dollar Question: When is the Next Election? [0:00]

• The timing of the next general election is a major point of speculation, with some analysts predicting it could occur sooner than expected.
• The upcoming budget tabling and vote will serve as a crucial test of Prime Minister Anwar's parliamentary majority.
• Politicians have differing views on when the next election will be called, with BN and PN potentially pushing for an earlier vote to capitalize on momentum.

  "Now, Wawasan is putting itself as a multi-racial appeal with a lot of technocrat or entrepreneurs that I see in their midst in their ranks so it remains to be seen what role they can play and how they can make sure that BN and PN and PAS can come together because they have their challenges as well."