Iran takes aim at US warships, with Jon Elmer

Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz [00:16]

• Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated significantly, impacting oil supplies.
• Despite claims of recovery, oil supply out of the Strait of Hormuz is nowhere near previous levels.
• The current week's events are expected to further set back supply levels.

  "The war in the Persian Gulf in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated this week with attacks on tankers taking it to a new level."

Iran's Strategic Threat [01:08]

• Iran has promised to regionalize the conflict and control the Strait of Hormuz.
• They intend to widen and extend the conflict, using geography as an asset.
• This is framed as a response to a "war of choice" launched by the United States.

  "the Iranians have promised that they are going to regionalize this conflict, control the straight of Hormuz... and that they would widen the conflict's duration, that they would extend this conflict, that that is the asset that the Iranians have."

Targeting of Vessels [01:44]

• Attacks have occurred on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, with ships waiting in anchorages being targeted.
• The U.S. claims to have targeted about 10 ships, while Iran claims to have targeted more than a dozen.
• Maritime trackers face challenges in identifying targeted ships as their Automatic Identification System (AIS) is turned off.

  "Um and that they would widen the conflict's duration, that they would extend this conflict, that that is the asset that the Iranians have."

U.S. Retaliation and Iranian Response [03:57]

• The U.S. has been seen bragging about sinking ships, including oil tankers, causing environmental devastation.
• The U.S. Central Command stated they struck three Iranian crude oil carriers in response to Iranian ballistic missile attacks on U.S. warships.
• Iran, in turn, has shown footage of their attacks on vessels, dialing up the situation in the Strait.

  "The United States Central Command forces struck three Iranian crude oil carriers on Saturday after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles towards two US Navy warships patrolling regional waters."

Iranian Warnings and Escalation [06:30]

• Iran issued warnings to ships in the area eight hours before an attack, citing "terrorist attacks" by the U.S. military.
• They warned crew members of oil tankers near Kuwait and Bahrain to leave their ships immediately.
• These threats extended to ships at anchorage or piers, signifying a significant escalation.

  "we warn all crew members of oil tankers located in the vicinity of Kuwait and Bahrain which host these terrorists and participate in their wicked acts to leave their ships immediately whether they are in anchorage or at the pier."

Drone and Missile Defense [07:05]

• Iranian missiles have been shot down, including an MQ1C Grey Eagle drone taken down by an Iranian missile.
• This missile has reportedly taken down over 50 MQ9 Reaper drones and 25 more in Yemen.
• The U.S. military operates the Grey Eagle, a drone described as a cross between the MQ9 and MQ1 Predator.

  "Also, every time we get an escalation, we get uh American drones shot out of the sky. This is an MQ1C Grey Eagle shot down here by a 358 uh Iranian missile."

Choke Point Vulnerability [07:37]

• The Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are identified as critical choke points.
• The Ansar Allah (Houthi) forces are pressing to control the Red Sea coast and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.
• Commodity vessel traffic in the Red Sea has decreased by 50% due to the conflict with the Saudis and Yemenis.

  "And the Straight of Hormuz is in the upper right there that you see. And the Straight of Hormuz used to have 125 vessels crossing a day, 20 million barrels, 20% of the world's oil supply."

Attack on Muafak Al-Salti Air Base [09:01]

• The Muafak Al-Salti air base in Jordan was in the line of fire this week, described as an "onshore aircraft carrier" for the Americans.
• A barrage of Kyber Shaon, GAD, and IMAD missiles were launched, some equipped with cluster munitions.
• The U.S. and Jordanian forces launched numerous Patriot interceptors, costing millions of dollars each, to counter the attack.

  "The dot right under the O in Jordan there right dead center in the map is Moafik Al-Sti air base and it was in the line of fire this week."

Depletion of Missile Defense Stocks [11:51]

• The extensive use of Patriot interceptors is rapidly depleting U.S. missile defense stocks.
• New Patriot orders will not be delivered until late 2029, indicating a lack of immediate replacements.
• The cost of interceptors is substantial, with dozens launched in a single barrage.

  "And what we're looking at here is the emptying of all of those uh batteries pretty much. I mean, we can count them. You're counting dozens of them."

Damage to U.S. Aircraft and Facilities [16:23]

• Roughly eight F-15 Strike Eagles were damaged or destroyed at the base in Jordan, and one A10 Warthog had its wing blown off.
• This adds to an estimated 40 known damaged or destroyed aircraft and helicopters, plus 50 MQ9 Reaper drones shot down.
• The IRGC stated that maintenance and repair areas, fighter aircraft deployment sites, and shelters were targeted, causing significant damage.

  "roughly eight, uh, F-15 Strike Eagles were damaged or destroyed. one A10 W A10 Warthog uh had his wing blown off and that adds to what is already something like 40 known damaged or destroyed aircraft or helicopters."

Attacks on U.S. Destroyers and Carriers [19:07]

• U.S. destroyers have been fired on multiple times, including the USS Delbert Black and USS John Paul Jones.
• Aircraft carriers, potentially the USS Washington, have also been targeted with medium-range ballistic missiles.
• The cost of interceptors like Patriot missiles ($4 million each) and SM3s ($10-30 million each) far exceeds the cost of the incoming missiles.

  "The US has admitted that their destroyers have been fired on multiple times in the past week and each time it was multiple uh incidents firing on aircraft carriers, firing on guided missile destroyers."

Iranian Missile and Drone Arsenal [21:43]

• The FATA 110 series of tactical short-range ballistic missiles, with ranges of 300-500 kilometers, are being used.
• PAVA cruise missiles, with ranges up to 1650 kilometers, and their anti-ship variants are deployed.
• Shahed drones, carrying 50 kg explosive charges, are also part of the attacks, posing a long-term logistical challenge for U.S. forces.

  "And then they have a family of them that are um anti-ship cruise missiles which you can see in 23. Um this is the Godd 380 and it's built on the same uh idea. It's the anti-ship variant of the PAVA uh with a range of well over 1,000 km."

Damage to Ali Al-Sum Air Base [24:56]

• The Ali Al-Sum air base in Kuwait, a key U.S. facility, sustained direct strikes, with base housing reportedly destroyed.
• The Pentagon's Defense Casualty Analysis System increased its casualty count to 820 wounded, potentially linked to this attack.
• The IRGC claimed targeting of headquarters and residences of the base commander in response to a "wedding party massacre."

  "This is Ali Al-Sum air base in Kuwait. This is a key US air base in Kuwait. You see there uh in the before you can see their base housing there and then you can see it gone."

Degradation of Bahrain Naval Base [30:36]

• A retired Navy captain described the naval support activity base in Bahrain as "virtually uninhabitable" after Iranian attacks.
• Damage is estimated to be close to $400 million, affecting the Fifth Fleet headquarters, barracks, and communication towers.
• The potential loss of the base is likened to losing an aircraft carrier, highlighting the severe impact on U.S. naval operations in the Middle East.

  "The naval support activity Bahrain is now virtually uninhabitable with families left in lingo limbo. It is difficult to grasp, he said."

U.S. Military Propaganda and Loss of Confidence [29:24]

• The U.S. military is seen as losing the propaganda war, with examples of misleading statements and stock footage used in official communications.
• The commander of Central Command's claims about clearing sea mines and escorting vessels are questioned, with evidence suggesting exaggeration and fabrication.
• There is a growing realization within the military establishment that their global posture is being fundamentally changed by Iranian resistance.

  "So, so you see he's saying that he's linking the clearing of the straight. He's showing these ships going through the straight and they're just it's the most peaceful shot of ships going through. It looks like it's so easy to travel the straight of Hormuz."