Iran strikes threaten future of US bases, with Jon Elmer

The Strait of Hormuz: Iran's Geographic Advantage [00:24]

• The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, through which 20% of the world's oil and natural gas pass.
• Iran, leveraging its geography, has flexed its military capacity and strategic positioning.

  "In this case, the US Treasury launched uh earlier this week Operation Economic Outcast, which it called an unprecedented campaign of sanctions, which will uh somehow be bigger than the sanctions that were always said or the maximum pressure, the biggest sanctions ever."

Operation Economic Outcast and China's Indifference [01:05]

• The US Treasury launched "Operation Economic Outcast" with unprecedented sanctions.
• China, responsible for 90% of Iran's oil trade, is unaffected by US sanctions.

  "The Financial Times rightly pointed it out that that was just a warning, which uh D-Day was not."

China's Stance on Sanctions [02:23]

• China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs opposes sanctions lacking international law or UN mandates.
• China views economic warfare and maximum pressure as counterproductive, favoring dialogue.

  "China is firmly against sanctions that have no basis in international law or UN Security Council mandates, economic warfare, and maximum pressure provide no solution."

Iran's Conditions for Opening the Strait [04:06]

• Iran's IRGC stated they will reopen the Strait of Hormuz only when the US meets Iran's conditions.
• These conditions include lifting sanctions, unfreezing funds, and ending blockades.

  "The IRGC has said over and over and over again that we will reopen in the straight of Hormuz only when the United States returns to the memorandum of understanding and meets all of Iran's conditions."

Negotiating with Iran [04:37]

• The speaker suggests that those negotiating with Iran are intellectually outmatched.
• Negotiations are described as unproductive, leading to short, ineffective agreements.

  "Anyone who could who uh talks about negotiations with Iranians uh they're always outmatched."

Iran's Current War Victory [05:26]

• The speaker asserts that Iran is winning the war as the situation stands.
• The US is perceived as unable to act effectively due to a lack of supplies and being "boxed in."

  "And as it is, if it goes nowhere, Iran wins the war. Iran is winning the war as it is right now."

Military Advantage in the Strait of Hormuz [06:03]

• Iran holds a significant military advantage in the Strait of Hormuz compared to neighboring Gulf countries.
• US escort operations are seen as presence patrols rather than effective military tactics due to resource limitations.

  "The Iranian mainland has every single military advantage you could want over the straight of Hormuz."

IRGC Spokesperson on Strait of Hormuz Control [07:09]

• The IRGC spokesperson stated that reopening the Strait is contingent on Iran's conditions and US non-interference.
• Iran views the Strait as a strategic asset, not just an economic waterway.

  "For us, the straight of Hormuz is not merely an economic waterway, but rather one of the elements of geographic and strategic power."

Shipping Disruptions and War Risk Insurance [11:10]

• Approximately 18 vessels have had warning shots fired at them, with some being struck and disabled.
• War risk insurance premiums have increased dramatically, making transit too expensive for many ships.

  "The master of the oil tanker reports the vessels been struck by an unknown projectile causing damage to the engine room and disabling the vessel."

Decline in Strait of Hormuz Transits [13:01]

• Transits through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped significantly, from over 150 per day to near zero.
• This decline is seen as a shock to the market that could lead to a global recession.

  "And this is a um a shock in the market that the World Bank said would uh inevitably lead to a global recession."

Impact on Oil and Fuel Prices [17:54]

• Gas prices have increased by 30%, diesel by 50%, and jet fuel by 70%.
• Diesel prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time.

  "The American Automobile Association said gas is up 30%, diesel is up 50%, jet f jet fuel is up 70%, as people listening to this show who drive or fly obviously know and don't need to be told."

Vulnerability of US Bases in the Middle East [22:06]

• US bases in the region are vulnerable, with many personnel evacuated and consolidated.
• Gulf countries hosting these bases do not want escalation and are concerned about the war.

  "It also uh it's clear to the Gulf countries hosting these bases that that they don't want this war."

Damage to US Military Installations [28:37]

• At least 228 structures or equipment pieces at military sites across the Middle East were destroyed in the initial weeks of the war.
• BBC Verify reported that Iran damaged 20 US military sites since the war began.

  "The Washington Post article that uh tallied at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at military sites across the Middle East that had been destroyed just in the first weeks of the war."

Unusable US Bases and Remote Operations [30:00]

• Several US bases, including a combined arms operation center in Qatar, are unusable due to extensive damage.
• US troops have been forced to operate remotely, with some bases becoming "uninhabitable."

  "Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by the American troops are all but uninhabitable."

Reassessment of US Military Presence [34:36]

• The Pentagon is considering a smaller US military presence in the Gulf post-war.
• Rebuilding strike-battered bases is estimated to cost tens of billions of dollars.

  "Pentagon weighing smaller US military presence in the Gulf once the Iran war ends."

Iran's Control Over Persian Gulf Bases [38:35]

• A US Army General stated that the US has likely permanently lost access to 15 Persian Gulf bases.
• Iran is poised to control access to the Gulf States, forcing the US to negotiate new access elsewhere.

  "In my judgment the US armed forces have probably permanently lost access to 15 Persian Gulf bases."

Protective Measures for Oil Facilities [40:20]

• Oil terminals in Abu Dhabi are being covered in protective "cages" against missile attacks.
• These measures are seen as insufficient to counter missile threats.

  "You see oil terminals that are covered in cages like the Israelis put on top of their tanks."