My Silver Exit Strategy in 2026 — When I Plan to Sell

Silver's Remarkable Surge and Personal Success Stories [00:00]

• The video begins by acknowledging the significant profits made by investors in silver, with its price nearly tripling since a previous recommendation.
• Numerous messages detail how these gains were used to pay off debts such as credit cards, student loans, and auto loans, or to achieve greater financial comfort in retirement.
• The speaker congratulates these investors and validates the decision to sell and lock in profits, emphasizing that individual circumstances and objectives differ.

Congratulations to everyone that made a killing on silver.

The Genesis of the Silver Recommendation and Price Appreciation [00:42]

• The speaker recaps their previous video made 7 months ago, explaining the research-backed reasoning for buying silver.
• At the time of that recommendation, silver was priced at $33 per troy ounce.
• The current price of silver, at the time of this video, is approximately $90 per troy ounce.
• Some comments noted a lack of sufficient warning, but the speaker refutes this, referencing an earlier video, "The Great Meltup" from 2024, where they explicitly advised buying silver at 9 minutes and 42 seconds.

No, I said you should buy silver.

Understanding the Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) for Exit Strategy [02:09]

• The core of the exit strategy relies on pricing silver in gold, specifically through the gold-to-silver ratio (GSR).
• The GSR compares the relative cheapness or expensiveness of silver to gold.
• Calculation: (Price of 1 oz gold) / (Price of 1 oz silver) = GSR. An example shows $3,300/$33 = 100 GSR.
• The GSR indicates whether silver is cheap or expensive relative to gold.

So, you're simply comparing how cheap or expensive silver is compared to gold.

Why GSR Over Dollar Price? Fiat Currency Critique [02:56]

• The speaker explains why comparing silver to gold (GSR) is preferred over comparing it to the US dollar.
• The US dollar is described as a fiat currency backed by nothing, akin to "monopoly money."
• Using the dollar for historical analysis of silver's value is deemed unreliable, especially when considering inflation.
• Government-reported inflation rates (CPI) are called a "complete lie" and the "CP lie," making historical inflation-adjusted analysis impossible with precise factual data.

You might as well compare it against monopoly money.

Historical GSR Analysis and the "Buy Low, Sell High" Principle [04:13]

• The GSR over the past 30 years shows a normal range of 60 to 80.
• Fluctuations within this range are typical, illustrating the "buy low, sell high" principle.
• When the speaker made the previous video, the GSR was above 100, representing an "asymmetric bet" with a highly favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
• The sell target was set at a GSR of 50.

Buy low, sell high, make a lot of money, and enjoy your life.

Executing the Exit: Selling 25% of Silver Holdings [04:52]

• On January 14th, the GSR briefly dropped below 50, triggering the sale of 25% of the speaker's silver ETF (SLV).
• This sale was immediately communicated to the Patreon community.
• Locking in gains from the tripling of silver's price meant that selling 25% almost recouped the initial investment.
• This makes the remaining 75% of the silver position a "free roll."
• The plan is to continue offloading the position if the GSR falls further, and to potentially buy back if it rises.

We locked in the gains and because it tripled by selling 25% of the position, we almost recouped the original investment amount, which means that the remaining portion of our silver is close to being a free roll.

Clarifications: Thesis Partially Played Out and Relative Value [05:49]

• The speaker clarifies they are not selling because they anticipate a crash, but because their investment thesis has partially played out and relative values matter.
• Silver has outperformed, volatility is increasing, and the risk is no longer asymmetrically in their favor.
• Historically, a rapid compression of the GSR often leads to silver overshooting and then underperforming gold in the subsequent phase, suggesting gold may become the better vehicle.

It means silver has already outperformed, volatility is increasing, and risk is no longer asymmetrically in our favor.

Gold and Silver Move Together; GSR is Key Indicator [06:34]

• Gold and silver generally move in the same direction.
• If both gold and silver prices double, the GSR remains unchanged at 50.
• The speaker reiterates that they will not sell based on a dollar price but will use the GSR as the primary indicator.

Again, I'm not going to sell based on a dollar price. I'm going to sell using the GSR as my primary indicator.

The Challenge of "Buy and Hold" and Setting Targets [07:20]

• The "buy and hold" strategy sounds simple but is difficult to execute due to emotional discomfort with large unrealized gains.
• Many investors became nervous when silver hit $50, $60, or $80 per ounce, but the speaker remained calm by sticking to their GSR-based target.

It sounds so simple, it sounds so easy, but it's it's not as easy as it sounds not to execute it because people get uncomfortable when they're up a lot of money with unrealized gains.

Staying Invested: Rotation, Not Liquidation [07:47]

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of staying invested, especially in the current environment.
• Selling 25% is a rotation, not a liquidation; the money is being reallocated, not held in cash waiting for a potential crash.
• The current environment is described as the "great meltup."

I am simply selling my silver and reallocating that money.

The Great Meltup and Devaluation of Currency [08:11]

• The "great meltup" is ongoing, with governments devaluing currency purchasing power.
• The stated inflation rate of 2.7% is dismissed as inaccurate, with the speaker pointing out that earning 3.5% in an interest-bearing account still results in a loss due to inflation.
• The Federal Reserve's actions (printing money, lowering interest rates) suggest markets may continue to rise, and fighting the Fed is not advisable. Financial asset inflation will likely drive market prices up for long-term investors.

The government is telling us that the purchasing power of our dollars is being devalued at a rate of 2.7% a year. I call BS.

Dollar Cost Averaging for Buying and Selling [08:57]

• The speaker applies dollar cost averaging (DCA) for both buying and selling.
• When buying, they typically use two to four increments (e.g., three batches) to average into a position, acknowledging they won't get the best or worst price but a generally correct one.
• The same principle applies to selling: dollar cost averaging out to smooth the process and achieve a generally correct exit price, which is why 25% has already been sold.

I want to sell in increments. I want a dollar cost average out.

Physical Silver vs. Paper Silver: Selling Hierarchy [10:04]

• In addition to silver held on the stock market (SLV), the speaker owns physical silver.
• The rule is clear: "Paper silver gets sold first. Physical silver gets sold last."
• Physical silver will only be sold after being completely out of paper silver.
• A small portion of physical silver might be kept as a contingency if the country experiences rapid decline.

Paper silver gets sold first. Physical silver gets sold last.

Rebuilding Positions and Long-Term Bullishness [10:42]

• The speaker would absolutely buy silver again if the GSR justifies it, viewing this as capital allocation, not emotional attachment.
• The overall stance remains bullish on precious metals, continuing to protect against currency debasement and positioning for long-term monetary change.
• Reducing volatility and locking in gains through this disciplined approach is not bearish.

If the gold to silver ratio justifies it, then I would rebuild the position.

Final Invitation to Patreon [11:18]

• The video concludes with an invitation to visit the speaker's Patreon site for insights into their strategies with gold, silver, and stocks, emphasizing it as a place to learn, ask questions, and stay ahead of market trends.

Come visit my Patreon site to see what I'm doing with gold, silver, and stocks.