Scott Ritter: Full-Scale War as Iran Attacks All U.S. Targets

The Decapitation Effort and Its Failure [0:27]

• The attack was a concerted effort to remove Iran's regime from power, with stated goals of regime change by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.
• Strikes targeted the residences of Ali Khamenei and the Iranian President, as well as senior military and civilian leadership, indicating a decapitation strategy.
• Despite casualties, the president and supreme leader were not among them, which is deemed a critical failure if regime change was the objective.
• This failure is predicted to initiate a cascading sequence of events detrimental to the US.

"If the goal is regime change and you don't kill the regime, you failed."

The Munitions Shortage and Strategic Defeat [1:45]

• The war is defined by the availability of munitions for the United States; running out of ammunition means losing the ability to project power effectively.
• Military leaders had warned of insufficient resources to carry out the task, and current events are proving their worst fears true.
• Military operations are resource-intensive, and failure to achieve initial objectives requires reallocating resources, leading to depletion and a disruption of the campaign.
• The initial failure to achieve decapitation means resources must remain on the target deck and be reinforced by diversions from other missions, leading to a cascading sequence of failures and depletion of munitions without achieving objectives.

"The United States has already lost this war."

Loss of Escalation Control and Iranian Retaliation [6:01]

• There appears to be a lack of control over escalation, with strikes reported on Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.
• These retaliatory strikes target regional bases and cities, indicating Iran is not adhering to a traditional escalation ladder.
• Iran views the attack as an existential struggle for survival, aiming to emerge from the conflict with the Islamic Republic intact.
• The Iranian objective is to win the war, which means regime change not just for Iran but also for the US and Israel, guaranteeing their political demise.

"They just absorbed a decapitation strike that was designed to kill their senior leadership for the purpose of achieving a collapse of the government."

Geopolitical Transformation and the Defeat of the US Military [9:39]

• The potential consequence of striking regional leaders is a realization by Gulf Arab nations that the US is not a reliable protector and Israel can be defeated.
• This could lead to a change in attitude among Gulf Arab nations and a geopolitical transformation away from US and Israeli regime change plans against Iran.
• Victory for Iran means not only survival but also creating a regional geopolitical transformation.
• The defeat of the US military is not measured by sinking ships or shooting down planes, but by its inability to win, similar to Hezbollah's success against Israel in 2006.

"The United States has always talked about regime change, meaning that it's not just about removing the regime, but changing the behavior of the regime."

The Impact on Trump and Netanyahu [09:13]

• Donald Trump is seen as having committed political suicide, with the attack marking the potential end of his presidency and leading to defeat in the midterm elections and impeachment.
• Benjamin Netanyahu faces a similar fate; failure to achieve regime change and significant Iranian retaliation against Israel could end his political viability.
• The war is strategically driven by American domestic political prerogatives, with a need for a result by midsummer to influence upcoming elections.

"This is the end of the Trump presidency. This decision to bomb Iran. If he doesn't win quickly and decisively, it's over."

Iranian Missile Superiority and Defense System Vulnerabilities [23:59]

• The previous "12-day war" gave Iran significant insight into Israeli and US defense systems, allowing them to learn and dissect its operation.
• Iran developed missiles with performance parameters that evade interception, effectively "breaking the code" of the defense systems.
• The current wave of missiles indicates Iran's ability to bypass defenses, not just exhaust them.
• This demonstrates Iranian technological superiority over missile defense systems and highlights the potential existential consequences if such defenses were to fail against a nuclear-armed adversary.

"The Iranians broke the code. They now knew how to defeat this system and they could defeat it with individual missiles whose performance parameters were such that they could not be intercepted."

Politicized Intelligence and Strategic Miscalculation [33:39]

• The US intelligence process has become politicized, creating an echo chamber that justifies pre-determined decisions rather than providing factual information.
• This leads to self-delusion and decisions based on politically tainted advice, not on realistic assessments of the problem.
• The decision to attack Iran was not based on informed advice but on what the president wanted to hear.
• The belief that bombing targets would lead to popular uprising in Iran has proven false, highlighting a fundamental miscalculation.

"The United States has over the course of several decades now allowed the intelligence process to be politicized so that instead of providing fact-based information to the leadership for them to make the best informed decisions possible."

The "Insanity" of Attacking a Supreme Leader [36:40]

• The attack targeted a major religious figure, Ali Khamenei, the second most influential Shia theological figure globally.
• This act is compared to attempting to kill the Pope or the head of the Russian Orthodox faith, indicating a profound insult.
• The assassination attempt on the President of Iran alongside this is described as "insanity of the highest order."
• The Iranian response is expected to be a reflection of this significant insult.

"We tried to kill him this morning. We tried to kill a major religious figure. This would be the equivalent of somebody trying to kill the Pope."

Russia and China's Role in Stability [37:29]

• Russia and China's foreign policy goals are focused on creating a stable, predictable world, not destabilizing the US.
• They seek to manage competing interests and prevent chaos, rather than defeat America.
• Their role in the conflict is expected to be pressuring Iran to avoid escalating to economic targets and to bring an end to the conflict without destabilizing the world.
• They aim to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, discouraging Iran from crossing the economic red line.

"The goal of Russian foreign policy is not to destabilize the United States, but just the opposite. To create a stable world where everything is predictable."

Economic Targets and Global Stability [41:01]

• Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would be a significant economic target, impacting the global economy.
• However, targeting Saudi, Azeri, or Kuwaiti oil production infrastructure would cause irreversible, permanent damage to the global economy.
• Russia and China will encourage keeping the Strait open, limiting Iran's economic retaliation to temporary closures rather than striking energy targets.
• A major concern is that the US and Israel might target energy infrastructure, which would trigger harsh Iranian responses and escalate the conflict.

"The bigger problem is that what happens if Iran starts targeting Saudi oil production infrastructure, Azeri oil, you know, production infrastructure, Kuwaiti, United Arab Emirates."