Ukraine MUST hunt down Russian missiles before they are launched to survive the war

The Sun

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Video Summary

Ukraine faces a severe threat from Russia's escalating drone and missile capabilities, with FPV drones capable of carrying explosives up to 50 kilometers and glided bombs causing widespread damage.

The most critical challenge lies in countering ballistic missiles, for which the Patriot system's PAK-3 missiles are the only Western defense. However, global production of these missiles is limited to approximately 600 annually, with depleted stockpiles worldwide, creating a severe supply shortage. Ukraine is exploring strategies including purchasing missiles individually from various nations, joint European production, and developing its own anti-ballistic missile capabilities, though the latter is deemed risky due to potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory. A proposed strategy involves using Starlink-equipped drones to strike Russian mobile missile launchers, a tactic that requires Elon Musk's approval to operate on Russian soil.

Short Highlights

Russia's FPV drones pose a significant threat, capable of carrying explosives up to 50 km and produced at a rate of 50,000 per month.
Glided bombs, launched from high altitudes, cause extensive damage with their long reach.
Ballistic missiles are the most challenging threat, with only Patriot's PAK-3 missiles offering effective defense.
Global production of Patriot missiles is severely limited (approx. 600 annually), and stockpiles are depleted.
Ukraine is pursuing multiple strategies to acquire or develop anti-ballistic missile capabilities.
A key proposal involves using Starlink-equipped drones to target Russian mobile missile launchers, pending Elon Musk's approval.

Key Details

FPV Drones: A Growing Threat [00:00:45]

Ukraine is increasingly threatened by Russian FPV drones, which are light, can carry up to three kilograms of explosives, and have a range of about 15-20 kilometers.
Latest models equipped with optic fiber can reach up to 50 kilometers, endangering civilian areas near the battlefield.
Russia produces an estimated 50,000 FPV drones monthly.

"So, why I'm talking about these small birds? Because 50 kilometers is pretty huge distance, and lots and lots of civilians, they became under threat."

Glided Bombs: Damaging and Cost-Effective [00:01:19]

Glided bombs are dropped from combat jets at altitudes of 10,000-15,000 meters, reaching targets up to 150 kilometers away.
While not highly precise, these bombs are cheap and inflict significant damage.

"And it's very cheap. Not so precise, but very how it's called. It costs lots and lots of damage."

Ballistic Missiles: The Ultimate Challenge [00:01:46]

The most significant threat comes from cruise missiles, Shahid drones, and ballistic missiles.
Ballistic missiles have a trajectory that makes them difficult to detect and intercept.
While cruise missiles can be countered by various systems, ballistic missiles require specialized defenses.

"What about the ballistic missiles? They're launched this way and they're dropped this way. So, it's very limited time to detect and to find out how to contract these missiles."

The Patriot Missile Shortage [00:02:19]

The only Western system capable of countering ballistic missiles is the Patriot system with PAK-3 missiles.
Global production of Patriot missiles is limited to about 600 annually, shared among all operating countries.
Stockpiles in Western countries and the Middle East have been depleted, leading to high demand and very limited supply.

"There is no possibility for Ukraine to get more and more of these missiles, because they're limited in production."

Ukraine's Multi-Pronged Defense Strategy [00:03:34]

Ukraine's primary goal is survival, alongside efforts to purchase available anti-ballistic missiles individually from global sources.
Joint production initiatives on European soil are being discussed with Germany, France, and Italy.
Developing indigenous anti-ballistic missile capabilities is considered, but faces significant risks due to potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian facilities.

"The second one is to start producing something on European soil, which is called joint production."

Targeting Russian Missile Production and Launchers [00:04:40]

A debated strategy involves destroying either the facilities producing Russian missiles or the mobile units that launch them.
Attacks on facilities producing components for Russian missiles like Iskander and Onyx have yielded unclear results.
Destroying mobile missile launchers, which can move at speeds up to 80 km/h, is seen as a viable option.

"The fourth strategy is to... There is a great theory, a great discussion. Whether you start, whether you have to destroy archer or arrows."

Starlink's Role in Targeting Mobile Launchers [00:05:48]

Ukraine proposes using mid-strike drones equipped with Starlink to operate in real-time on Russian soil.
This would allow operators to detect and attack mobile units preparing to launch ballistic missiles.
Elon Musk has reportedly been unwilling to discuss allowing Starlink use on Russian territory.

"Ukraine asked Mr. Musk, Elon Musk, to allow Ukraine to use Starlink complex on Russian soil."

The Urgency of Missile Production and Alternative Solutions [00:07:05]

The United States has funded efforts to increase Patriot missile production, but completion is not expected until 2030.
Destroying mobile Russian missile units is considered a critical strategy to limit threats to Kyiv and border regions.
Russia is believed to possess a limited number of these mobile units (estimated between 100-150), making their destruction feasible.

"I think this possibility of destroying mobile units, mobile launching units, I think it's a great option for Ukraine to limiting threats to Kyiv, to border regions of Ukraine."