OpenAI’s Revenue Run Rate Tops $40B | The Asia Trade 8/14/2026

OpenAI's Revenue Surge and IPO Prospects [00:00:45]

• OpenAI is on track to generate more than $40 billion of annualized revenue.
• This revenue growth is seen as a significant boost for its IPO plans.
• The company's growth is not limited to its enterprise or coding products but also includes its ads-related and consumer businesses.

  "What we are hearing is that it is seeing this revenue run rate in the 40 billion range, which is quite a lot more than what we knew from last year, where I think it was more like 20."

China's Shifting Tech Landscape: CXMT Overtakes Tencent [00:00:18]

• Chipmaker CXMT has surpassed Tencent as China's most valuable company.
• This shift highlights investors' growing preference for AI-linked chipmakers.
• Tencent faces investor concerns over rising AI spending, while CXMT is a key proxy for China's AI ambitions.

  "A changing of the guard in Chinese tech, with chipmaker CXMT topping Tencent as its most valuable company, while JD.com posts its forced quarterly revenue decline since listing."

JD.com's Revenue Decline and Consumer Malaise [00:00:25]

• JD.com reported its first quarterly revenue decline since its listing.
• This result reflects the subdued consumer demand in China.
• The company's business model is struggling to overcome the weak Chinese consumer.

  "JD is a great expression of the Chinese consumer and spending patterns. So I think we saw that in the results that came out yesterday, where the business model is still struggling to shake off the weak Chinese consumer."

US Tariffs on Chinese Drones [00:00:29]

• The Trump administration is imposing tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese drones and their components.
• This move could heavily affect Chinese manufacturers like DJI, which holds a significant share of the U.S. market.
• The U.S. cited reliance on foreign-made drones as the reason for the tariffs.

  "The Trump administration targets Chinese drones, slapping on tariffs as high as 100%. "

Global Market Reaction to US Inflation Data [00:00:37]

• Asian stocks are expected to extend Wall Street gains following moderating U.S. inflation.
• Lower U.S. inflation eases risks of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
• Equity index futures are higher in Japan and South Korea.

  "Asia is set to extend Wall Street gains as the S&P 500 hits a record further evidence of moderating U.S. inflation easing risks of a Fed hike next month."

Memory and Storage Sector Rally [00:01:08]

• The memory and storage market is seeing significant growth, with NAND prices strong.
• SanDisk's strong performance is seen as a positive read-through for Asian markets.
• Taiwanese players in NAND flash have been rallying, with Samsung and SK Hynix also showing gains.

  "Sandisk has a pretty clean read-through to Asia to start in Japan and in Korea. They saw the NAND market absolutely exploding in size."

China's AI Model Monetization [00:01:50]

• China is shifting from cheap AI models to capable ones, nearing the frontier of U.S. models.
• There is a path towards monetization of these models, creating a self-enforcing loop for investment.
• DeepSeek is raising prices for its AI models, a trend expected across Chinese models.

  "What we've been seeing out of China is no longer cheap models but capable models. The capability has come closer and closer to the frontier in the United States."

Anthropic's Valuation and IPO Speculation [00:02:30]

• Investors are anticipating Anthropic to achieve a valuation of $2 trillion or more.
• The company has experienced significant growth in revenue and users.
• Anthropic is acknowledged as having some of the most powerful AI models.

  "Yeah, I mean, it remains to be seen if that is what's going to happen, but it would be quite interesting if they were able to achieve that."

AMD's Debt Issuance Amidst Tech Debt Demand [00:02:55]

• AMD is issuing $4.75 billion in debt across three tranches.
• There is high demand for tech debt in the U.S. IG market, leading to tight pricing.
• AMD is in a strong financial position with low existing debt.

  "Now, the speculation is that the AMD $4.75 billion debt that is coming in three tranches is also being priced tight."

China's AI Ecosystem and Funding [00:03:38]

• China's AI development requires a self-funding ecosystem, similar to the West.
• Companies like CXMT and YMTC are catching up in NAND competition, while Huawei produces high-grade chips.
• This requires significant investment in compute and memory.

  "A lot of this requires a self-funding ecosystem like we have in the West. We kind of need to replicate that now in China."

US-China Trade Tensions and September Meeting [00:04:28]

• The U.S. tariffs on Chinese drones raise the stakes for the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting.
• Both sides are expected to use such measures as leverage for concessions.
• Diplomacy next month is expected to be tricky due to the use of tariffs.

  "I mean, this obviously raises the stakes for this meeting between Xi and Trump in September in the United States."

Australia's Tariff Negotiations with the US [00:05:15]

• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese discussed tariff exemptions with President Trump.
• Australia is currently subject to a 12.5% tariff rate on certain goods.
• The U.S. is collecting 10-12.5% duties from most major trading partners.

  "We have heard from President Trump agreeing to at least consider Australia's request to consider a full exemption or at the very least no increase to the tariffs that have been imposed by the U.S. on Australia."

India's AI-Driven Power Demand [00:10:16]

• India's data center power needs could increase significantly due to AI adoption.
• Tata Power CEO expects demand to reach 30 gigawatts by 2035.
• Google is investing $15 billion to build an AI hub in India, including captive power generation.

  "So right now, in the country, we have about 1.5 gigawatt of supply which goes to data centers. With whatever has been announced, we are expecting that this will become about 10 gigawatt by 2030, and about 30 gigawatt by 2035."

South Korean Market Rebound and Foreign Investment [00:11:55]

• The South Korean stock market (KOSPI) has entered a technical bull market.
• Foreign investors have been net sellers year-to-date, but buying has increased recently.
• The AI and data center theme is driving growth across various sectors.

  "We think that maybe deleveraging may not be completely over, but definitely we've come down significantly in the deleveraging process."

Bank of Japan's Potential Rate Hike and Yen Weakness [00:14:10]

• Markets are pricing in a high chance of the Bank of Japan hiking rates in September or October.
• The weakness of the Japanese yen has provided a boost to Japanese exporters.
• The pace of tightening after a potential rate hike is a key question for markets.

  "Markets pricing in more than a 60 percent chance of the BOJ actually hiking in September. That was a Rick Reeder of BlackRock speaking to Bloomberg earlier."

Japanese Investment Shift: From Saving to Investing [00:17:04]

• Japanese individuals are shifting from saving to investing due to rising inflation and market highs.
• The Nikkei 225 has surged over 20% this year, fueled in part by the AI boom.
• Concerns remain about inflation worsening inequality, with lower-income households feeling the strain.

  "With everything happening around the world, I worry about my financial future, whether I'll be able to support myself while I'm working and after retirement."

China's Luxury Market Evolution [00:19:09]

• China's luxury sector is recovering, but consumers are becoming more value-conscious.
• Shoppers are trading down to high-end skincare, cosmetics, and fashion, particularly shoes.
• Companies like L'Oreal and Estee Lauder are seeing strong performance in their luxury divisions in China.

  "So very unlike the pre-pandemic years where the industry essentially tripled in size in the five years to 20 to 2021, shoppers don't have thousands of US dollars to spend anymore on handbags and essentially jewelry, but they still want to look good."

Chinese Consumer Demand and Retailer Performance [00:21:15]

• JD.com's revenue decline highlights subdued consumer demand in China.
• Muay Thai is showing resilience with price increases for its flagship product, VTM Muay Thai.
• Macau's gaming sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the premium mass segment.

  "Yes, I think so. And also, last year, there's a new round of alcohol ban. It really dampened the investor confidence for the whole sector."

AI Adoption and Consumer Attitudes in China vs. US [00:17:55]

• Chinese consumers are significantly more optimistic about AI than Americans.
• This optimism in China is linked to past experiences with technology being empowering.
• Chinese users are more willing to experiment with new AI products, potentially giving China an advantage in application development.

  "Yes, there is a huge difference, and it's not just between the U.S. and China. You look at this survey that has been published on the Stanford University AI Index, and it shows that people's optimism towards AI is much, much higher in countries like China, but even some Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia, Thailand."