Why The Taliban is Going to War AGAIN

The video details the escalating border skirmishes between Tajikistan and the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, a situation exacerbated by historical tensions, drug trafficking, and geopolitical maneuvering. Recent clashes, such as those in late January 2026 resulting in fatalities, highlight the fragility of the region's security. Tajikistan, historically reliant on Russian support through the CSTO, finds itself in a precarious position as Russia diversifies its engagement with the Taliban. This complex dynamic involves historical grievances dating back to Soviet involvement in Afghanistan, Tajikistan's own civil war, and the subsequent rise of militant groups like the IMU and the Taliban. The narrative also touches upon Tajikistan's internal political consolidation under President Emomali Rahmon and his family, alongside the broader implications of China's investment in Central Asia and the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. One striking aspect is the significant economic engagement, including multi-million dollar railway projects and electricity supply, occurring alongside persistent security concerns and diplomatic posturing.

The region faces ongoing threats from militant groups and smuggling, with the recent surge in border incidents pushing relations to a critical point. Despite these tensions, both Tajikistan and the Taliban seem to be recalibrating their diplomatic approaches, driven by economic interdependence and the need for regional stability. The video underscores how past conflicts and shifting international alliances continue to shape the present-day security landscape in Central Asia.

• Recent border skirmishes between Tajikistan and Afghanistan resulted in three deaths.
• Smugglers carrying hashish and opium were intercepted by Tajik border guards.
• Tajikistan's national security committee seized weapons and drugs.
• Over the latter months of 2025, dozens were killed in attacks by men identified as terrorists by Tajik authorities, including Chinese nationals.
• Russia, through the CSTO, is supplying weapons and military equipment to Tajikistan.
• Tajikistan, a landlocked country in Central Asia, is the smallest by land area but highest in elevation.
• Tajikistan gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and endured a civil war from 1992-1997.
• The Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989) drained the Soviet economy and damaged its international prestige.
• The Taliban emerged victorious after Afghanistan's civil war, leading to millions of deaths and the creation of global terrorist networks.
• The Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP) in Tajikistan was supported by Afghanistan's government and later by the Taliban.
• The US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 provided President Rahmon with an opportunity to crack down on his Islamic opposition.
• Constitutional changes in Tajikistan in 2016 strengthened President Rahmon's family's grip on power, paving the way for his son's potential presidency.
• Following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, border clashes between the Taliban and Tajik forces increased significantly.
• Tajikistan became the primary international supporter of the National Resistance Front (NRF) against the Taliban.
• Russia's evolving relationship with the Taliban, including potential formal recognition, has created a tense dynamic with Tajikistan.
• The war in Ukraine has diminished Russia's capacity to project power in Central Asia, forcing Tajikistan to soften its stance on the Taliban.
• Tajikistan handed over control of the Afghan consulate in Khorog to the Taliban and reopened joint cross-border markets.
• Militant threats persist, with three militants from Jamaat Ansarullah killed after crossing from Afghanistan in September 2025.
• In 2024, Tajik and Taliban officials held meetings to address fighters operating along the border, and signed a $7 million agreement for railway projects.
• The year 2025 saw a dramatic surge in violence and border clashes, including incidents resulting in the deaths of Chinese nationals.
• By early 2026, CSTO was preparing weapons for Tajikistan should the conflict with the Taliban escalate.
• Despite tensions, trade between Tajikistan and Afghanistan has increased, reaching $110 million in the previous year.
• Tajikistani Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Mehriddin stated that security agencies from both sides are cooperating to prevent border incidents.
• The Taliban assured Tajikistan they are taking measures to prevent future incidents and conduct investigations.
• The Taliban is not a unified entity but composed of multiple interest groups with potentially contradictory goals.