Why Putin refuses to have a dedicated successor & is a 'Death of Stalin' race to power coming?

Russia's Personalized Authoritarianism [00:00:00]

• Vladimir Putin has constructed a personalist dictatorship, concentrating power around himself.
• Russia has been an authoritarian regime since Putin came to office, gradually building this system.
• The Russia-Ukraine war has intensified the personalization of power, with few constraints on Putin's authority.

  "the russian state is a grand ecosystem of institutions and different players but at the very very top is vladimir putin"

Mimicking Democratic Structures [00:01:30]

• Modern authoritarian regimes, including Russia, mimic the formal constitutional structures of democracies.
• Russia has a constitution with an elected president, prime minister, and a two-house legislature, resembling a semi-presidential system inspired by the French Fifth Republic.
• Unlike classical authoritarian regimes, Russia's system includes nominally independent judiciaries and enumerated rights.

  "what's unique about russia and in fact what's unique about 21st century authoritarian regimes is that in general they look like democracies they just don't have the politics of democracies"

Putin's Absolute Power and Control [00:03:45]

• The Russian president's power is immense on paper, with decree powers and the ability to dismiss the prime minister.
• By controlling the ruling party and ensuring its re-election, Putin maintains control over parliament and the prime minister.
• This control is maintained under an increasingly coercive system where deviation is heavily punished, as seen with Alexei Navalny.

  "as long as you control everything else in the system as long as you ensure that the ruling party which is subservient to putin always continues to win re-election"

The Succession Dilemma in Personalist Dictatorships [00:05:30]

• Succession is always challenging in highly personalized authoritarian regimes.
• Naming a successor too early can create a threat, potentially leading to a coup or early retirement for the leader.
• Successors are typically picked late or not at all, especially in personalist systems.

  "you don't want to pick a successor too soon because he or she in principle could become a threat an alternative source of power"

Russia's Unique Gerontocracy and Lack of Heirs [00:07:45]

• Putin, 73, has been insistent on preventing any sense of a designated heir.
• Unlike other Eurasian personalist dictatorships that have used dynastic succession (e.g., Azerbaijan), Putin has not groomed family members.
• Russia lacks a vice president, a position Putin does not want, making succession less clear.

  "putin hasn't done that either so that gets to this question of who comes next and who come next who comes next when you don't dub a successor"

The "Selectorate" and Generational Tension [00:10:00]

• The "selectorate"—the top upper-tier elites—will likely decide who comes next, a group of perhaps 10 key players.
• This group includes individuals like Alexei Duman, head of the State Council, who is relatively young but lacks independent power.
• More independent power lies with older men in their 70s from the security services, personal friends of Putin, who are part of the gerontocracy and may lack the skills for future governance.

  "we can't predict who comes after putin but we can predict who makes the decision of who comes after putin it's likely the selectorate group"

The Danger of Untrained Future Leadership [00:13:30]

• The aging elite prevents the natural circulation of new leaders, hindering the development of governance skills.
• Future officials may lack the experience to run the country if they haven't held key decision-making roles.
• This lack of prepared leadership poses a significant danger when succession eventually occurs.

  "the next generation of russian officials russian leadership the next russian president and his key decision influencing advisors may not have the chops to run the country"

Navigating the Post-Putin Transition [00:15:00]

• The constitution mandates the prime minister become acting president and hold elections within three months of Putin's exit.
• However, the real question is who will run in that election and who will truly call the shots afterward.
• The post-Stalin period illustrates that power struggles can take years, with multiple figures jockeying for influence.

  "the real question is who runs in that election and then after that in the year two years three years following does that president actually call the shots right"