Bitcoin Bearish Divergence?! But ALTs Will FLY!
Trading Bureau
10,648 views • 9 days ago Save 16 min 4 min read
Video Summary
Bitcoin experienced a significant surge, climbing 5% on Thursday and reaching a local high of $82,283. Despite this bullish price action, a bearish divergence is forming on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with the indicator showing lower highs while the price makes higher highs. This divergence suggests a potential downturn, with key support levels at $76,704 and $77,060 being critical.
Ethereum, however, underperformed Bitcoin, failing to reach the same gains and showing more chart weakness. Other altcoins, like Cardano and Dash, saw substantial price increases, with Cardano showing potential for further upside and Dash exhibiting rapid gains but cautioning against its age and overbought conditions. The speaker emphasizes the importance of taking profits on upward trends, regardless of the timeframe, to secure gains and mitigate risk.
Short Highlights
- Bitcoin's Bullish Surge: BTC price jumped 5% on Thursday, hitting a new local high of $82,283.
- Bearish Divergence Warning: A lower high on the RSI coupled with Bitcoin's higher price suggests a potential downtrend.
- Ethereum's Underperformance: ETH failed to match BTC's gains, indicating underlying weakness.
- Altcoin Rally: Cardano and Dash experienced significant price increases, with Cardano showing promise and Dash cautioning due to its age and overbought status.
- Profit-Taking Strategy: The speaker stresses the critical importance of securing profits during upward price movements across all timeframes.
Key Details
Bitcoin's Price Surge and RSI Divergence [0:00]
- Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant price increase of 5% on Thursday, reaching a local high of $82,283.
- Despite the bullish price action, a bearish divergence is noted on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), where the RSI shows lower highs while the price makes higher highs.
- The critical support level for BTC is identified at $72,000, which is approximately a 10.5% drop from current levels.
"BTC is literally on fire. On Thursday, it shot up 5%."
Key Support and Resistance Levels for BTC [1:14]
- The $72,000 level is highlighted as a significant and critical support, despite feeling distant.
- The speaker discusses potential price-based resistance and historical support levels that BTC is approaching.
- Short-term support is also mentioned as a factor to consider in market analysis.
"What about historical support where it's closing in on?"
Bearish RSI Divergence Explained [3:00]
- A bearish divergence occurs when the price makes higher highs, but the RSI makes lower highs, signaling potential weakness.
- The RSI closed at 74.13 on Thursday, and a bearish RSI reset happens when the RSI crosses below the overbought threshold of 70.
- The speaker emphasizes that while emotions and greed can be fooled, RSI is a more objective indicator.
"When you see relative strength index putting in lower highs and the chart, the price is putting in higher highs, that's bearish divergence."
Ethereum's Weakness Compared to Bitcoin [5:00]
- Ethereum (ETH) underperformed Bitcoin's 5% gain, moving less than 5% itself.
- ETH dropped below its 382 Fibonacci retracement level and showed more weakness on its chart compared to Bitcoin.
- The RSI for Ethereum failed to get above the 70 overbought threshold during its recent pump, indicating a weak move.
"Ethereum go up? It actually underperformed."
Altcoin Performance and Trading Opportunities [7:40]
- Many altcoins experienced bullish bounces, with Cardano (ADA) showing a significant move of over 10% (13% from wick to wick).
- Cardano's positive response to the 50-period smooth moving average and its upward-trending momentum suggest potential for further gains.
- Dash (DASH) has seen a dramatic pump, up 68% since Wednesday and 11% yesterday, but caution is advised due to its age and overbought conditions.
"I bought the dip on some of them and have done pretty well buying the dip."
Trading Strategy: Taking Profits [11:00]
- The speaker stresses the importance of taking profits on the way up, regardless of the trading timeframe.
- For faster timeframes like the hourly or five-minute, profits should be taken much quicker.
- The strategy is to secure gains incrementally, with a reminder that "no one ever went broke taking a profit."
"Your timeframe should always dictate your take profit strategy."
Jito's Bounce and Support Level [14:00]
- Jito (JTO) bounced off a long-term support level, showing an 11% move yesterday, though it has given back some gains.
- The speaker protected profit by moving the stop loss to break even and was stopped out with a 3% gain.
- A bullish RSI reset is observed for Jito, but a close below the support level would be a negative sign.
"I had a position that I opened on this and I moved my stop loss up to protect profit. I got stopped out at 3%."