“This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape

The Number One Threat: Violent Populism [00:00:49]

• The greatest threat to America is not foreign governments but tens of millions of Americans who support political violence.
• This support for political violence fundamentally changes society and ushers in a new era.

  "Once you have support for political violence lodged in the mainstream of society, this changes everything."

A New Era of Political Violence [00:01:15]

• The current era is distinct from historical instances of political violence, characterized by "violent populism."
• While past eras had militia groups and assassination attempts, the current paradigm involves mass support for political violence.

  "This is a new paradigm. This is a different world."

Historical Context of Political Violence [00:02:01]

• Precursors to the current era include the 1920s and 1960s, but the present situation is historically unprecedented in its scale and support.
• For most people alive today, the 1960s and earlier periods of unrest are distant memories.

  "So the fact is, yes, there have been precursors and other eras of violent populism where you have a whole spate, waves of assassination attempts, waves of violent protests."

Escalating Violence and Threats [00:04:04]

• Recent years have seen multiple assassination attempts against Donald Trump, Nancy Pelosi's husband, and a U.S. Supreme Court justice.
• Violent protests, such as those during the George Floyd unrest and January 6th, demonstrate the scale of collective political violence.

  "These three are just a small number of the many assassination attempts and assassinations that we have seen over the last five years."

Defining Violent Populism [00:05:39]

• Ordinary populism involves political polarization and peaceful protests driven by anger at the establishment.
• Violent populism transforms this anger into support for actual political violence.

  "Violent populism is taking a lot of that anger in the mainstream, and it is transforming into political violent anger, where there's support for political violence, violence, which is going to then encourage actual political violence."

Shocking Survey Data on Political Violence [00:06:10]

• Recent surveys reveal a dramatic increase in support for political violence.
• 25% of American adults, or 65 million people, now support using force to prevent Trump from becoming president, with 44% of Democrats holding this view.

  "25% of American adults support the use of force to prevent President Trump from being president."

Pro-Trump Support for Political Violence [00:08:37]

• 16% of Americans, primarily Republicans, support Trump using the military to suppress Democratic protesters.
• Combined, support for both pro-Trump and anti-Trump political violence reaches approximately 100 million Americans.

  "So you put these two numbers together, the support for anti-Trump political violence and support for pro-Trump political violence, and what do you end up with? A hundred million Americans supporting political violence."

The Midterms: A Dangerous Election [00:09:31]

• The upcoming midterms are predicted to be the most dangerous elections in living memory due to widespread support for political violence.
• The actual violence may occur not on election day, but during the certification of results, similar to January 6th.

  "This portends that the midterms will be the most dangerous elections in our lifetimes."

Shifting Threats: Beyond the Right [00:10:31]

• While FBI and CIA reports often cite threats from the right, a deeper analysis shows a more balanced and evolving landscape.
• The nature of political violence has changed over the last decade, with significant participation from both the left and the right.

  "Once you lift the hood and actually go through the annual data point by point, you will see that they come to almost exactly the same conclusions."

The New Paradigm: Trump and Social Change [00:12:30]

• The era of violent populism largely dates to President Trump's first term, reflecting deep social changes.
• Trump is seen as both a symptom and a cause of these changes, particularly concerning demographic shifts.

  "The first level, Chris, what's determining why we're in the era of violent populism now, as opposed to 20 years ago or 20 years from now, is that we're in the tipping point of certain social changes that are happening to our country."

Symmetry in Violent Populism [00:15:06]

• Despite differing ideologies, the operational dynamics and mass support for political violence show symmetry between the right and the left.
• Mass support fundamentally changes the scale of political violence, providing social approval for volatile individuals.

  "So what you see, and I don't mean to paint a moral equivalence on the right and the left, but in terms of basic operations, how they relate to the mass support of political violence in the country, there's a lot of symmetry."

Collective Political Violence: Examples [00:18:52]

• The summer of 2020 George Floyd protests saw significant property damage and violence, with 5-7% of participants engaging in violent acts.
• January 6th involved a large crowd, with approximately 1,600 individuals breaching the Capitol, using improvised weapons against police.

  "So the first was the summer of 2020 with George Floyd. And the starting with at the end of May, when George Floyd was killed and the video of his death went viral, there were in the top over 100 cities in the United States, almost daily protests."

The Role of Social Media and Approval [00:22:49]

• Social media acts as a catalyst, pouring gasoline on an underlying fire by providing instant social approval for violence.
• The normalization of political violence is a cascading phenomenon that requires pushback from political leaders.

  "Social media matters, but it's like pouring gasoline on an underlying fire."

The Shifting Profile of Extremists [00:26:35]

• The stereotype of unemployed, rural militia members is outdated; the new profile includes educated, middle-class individuals with careers and families.
• Examples like Luigi Mangione and Cole Allen, and the backgrounds of January 6th defendants, highlight this shift.

  "So the new stereotype, Chris, before I go into examples, are essentially well-educated, middle-class Americans, nice homes, and a 401k, and they wear a suit and tie."

Root Causes: Demographic and Wealth Shifts [00:31:09]

• A key driver is the demographic shift from a white majority to a white minority democracy, fueling anxieties about cultural and political change.
• Mass wealth shift to the top 1% creates a negative-sum society, increasing economic anxieties that combine with demographic fears.

  "For the first time in our country's 250 year history, the United States is transitioning from a white majority democracy to a white minority democracy."

The Election as a Focal Point [00:36:10]

• Elections serve as focal points that can ignite mass sentiment into concrete action, as seen in 2020 and potentially in future elections.
• The process involves a legitimacy shock, a focal point for seating officials, and potentially prolonged violent opposition.

  "Well, the elections matter, Chris, and we saw that in November, 2020."

The Missing Pushback [00:38:46]

• While 65-70% of Americans abhor political violence, they lack a vehicle to express this sentiment, creating a "silent majority."
• Political leaders are not adequately addressing or restraining their constituents' support for violence.

  "But they don't have a good vehicle to express that. We have been tracking this for years."

Foreign Influence: Modest Impact [00:43:01]

• Foreign powers like Russia and China can amplify existing issues but cannot create political violence out of whole cloth.
• Studies suggest foreign influence on American political polarization is modest, not overwhelming.

  "At least that's what the science of this has shown so far. Maybe we'll see in the future, this may change."

The Iran War and Pre-existing Divides [00:45:53]

• Support for the Iran war is falling along pre-existing American political divisions, unlike previous wars where a "rally around the flag" effect occurred.
• Foreign propaganda, such as Iran's Lego videos, has not significantly moved American public opinion on the war.

  "So what you are seeing in our surveys, other surveys, is support for the Iran war is falling out heavily along pre-existing divisions in our country."

Trump's Influence and Social Change [00:48:27]

• While President Trump's rhetoric and actions contribute to the current climate, deep social changes (demographics, wealth inequality) are the primary drivers.
• Focusing solely on Trump or social media oversimplifies the complex roots of political violence.

  "So if I had to put numbers on it, I would say 50% of this is due to the social changes I laid out, 25% is due to President Trump, and 25% is due to social media and other factors that I would just lump in another group of things."

Existential Politics and Meteoric Rises [00:51:36]

• Current political issues are existential, not just disagreements on policy, driving the rise of figures like Trump and new politicians who tap into these core social changes.
• The focus on social change issues is what is breaking the country apart and driving the era of violent populism.

  "These are their core issues, Chris, and these are the core issues that are not just like polarization and we disagree a little bit on tax rates."