Trump BLEW IT! Iran Vows BRUTAL Retaliation to US Strike | Scott Ritter & Ray McGovern

US-Iran Tensions and Potential Strike [00:00]

• Reports suggest the Trump administration has made a decision to attack Iran, with only timing and execution pending.
• Challenges for the US include an unusual absence of aircraft carriers in the US Sentcom area and the vulnerability of US bases to Iranian retaliation.
• Scott Ritter notes that aircraft carriers are unnecessary for such a strike, which would likely involve cruise missiles and bombers, and that any carriers in the air would be sunk by Iranian ballistic missiles.
• US facilities in the region are expected to be heavily targeted by Iran, making such an attack seem "pre-ordained" with no apparent way to stop it.
• The Israeli intelligence service (Mossad) allegedly created and supported anti-demonstration riots in Iran, hoping the US would bomb command and control targets during the peak of unrest to facilitate regime change.
• Ritter believes this window of opportunity for regime change through riots has closed, and the US is too late, suggesting Trump's posturing is to intimidate Iran into negotiations.

"The Israelis have always hinted that they had something else up their sleeves... Well, they just shot that bolt. Oh, that's something else was they had uh the Israelis had created the ability to mobilize um significant um anti-demonstration um riots."

Geopolitical Motivations and Iranian Response [07:40]

• Ray McGovern argues that the conflict with Iran has nothing to do with US national security, as Iran poses no threat to the US, and is solely for Israel's benefit, depending on Trump's relationship with Netanyahu.
• McGovern expresses relief at Ritter's assessment that a US attack is unlikely, fearing a "fool's errand" for US troops and potential obliteration of Israel.
• Saudi Arabia has warned the Trump administration against striking Iran due to possible retaliation.
• Scott Ritter explains that Iran is fully prepared for a conflict, having learned from past engagements, and has a capable intelligence service.
• The 12-day war in June eliminated uncertainties, revealing that Iran's counter-punch was effective against Israeli attempts to decapitate its leadership.
• Ritter believes Iranian intelligence officers would be fired for not assuming a decapitation strike designed to empower protesters.
• He asserts that Iran would be ready for such a strike and need to launch on warning, as their launchers would be targeted.
• Ritter emphasizes the professionalism of Iranian forces and their understanding of the stakes, needing to knock Israel out of the fight and deliver a significant blow to the US.

"This is all for Israel. Now it all depends on whether Trump is so wedded to Netanyahu. Not only for genocide, my god, not only for force starvation, but for sacrificing US troops as well as other troops in a in a fool's errand."

US Foreign Policy and Intelligence Operations [20:41]

• The Trump administration's foreign policy is described as chaotic, with actions like the "kidnapping" of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela preceding discussions of an attack on Iran.
• A new air defense operations cell in Qatar is presented as a measure to enhance integrated air and missile defenses, but Ritter dismisses it as mere posturing.
• Ritter argues that current US air defense systems are incapable of protecting facilities from a concerted Iranian ballistic missile attack, even with integrated systems.
• He highlights the existence of Iranian "Arric-type missiles," possibly replicated from advanced technologies, and suggests the US lacks effective defenses against them.
• Ritter claims the Trump administration deceives people and cannot be trusted, citing examples of broken promises and duplicitous actions.
• He asserts that developing such complex operational plans and deploying assets takes time, making immediate large-scale attacks unlikely, and that Trump's administration is not serious.
• Ray McGovern questions the narrative of diplomatic talks with Iran, suggesting media outlets like the Washington Post and New York Times are unreliable.

"It's posturing to let's just be honest. Um, air defense capability is the air defense capability that you have, the technology. No amount of operation cells and coordination and you know integrated this integrated that is going to change the fact that we don't have air defense systems capable of protecting our facilities from concerted Iranian ballistic missile attack."

Historical Context and Regime Change Operations [48:46]

• The discussion shifts to the historical context of US foreign policy and intelligence operations, referencing the creation of the CIA and its mandate for "other tasks and duties" as directed by the President.
• McGovern contrasts the analytical role of intelligence with the "operatives" who engage in regime change operations, citing the 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran against Prime Minister Mossadegh for nationalizing oil.
• He also mentions the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba as an example of operatives pushing an agenda against the judgment of analysts.
• McGovern criticizes national security advisors who funnel selective information to the president, referencing Marco Rubio's influence on Trump.
• The video suggests that the CIA's involvement in regime change has a long history, with its "off switch" never being activated.
• The Iranian government's concessions on issues like the hijab are discussed, which they believe created a "window of vulnerability" for foreign-influenced "fifth columns."
• The deaths during protests are debated, with Ritter dismissing inflated numbers as propaganda and asserting that Iranian security forces acted with restraint, citing the president's concessions on economic issues.

"So you have two CIAs. the one that Tulsi Gabbard has tried to tried to resurrect and reestablish the analysis part who were cut out of this this uh Venezuela operation because the operatives were telling the president and telling everyone else, 'Yeah, we could do this. Of course, we could do that.'"

Escalation of Global Tensions and Arms Race [32:43]

• Netanyahu's visit to Mar-a-Lago is suggested as a catalyst for heightened tensions with Iran, potentially to divert attention from the Gaza situation.
• The presence of Russia and China is noted as a critical factor, with significant economic stakes in Iranian oil.
• McGovern believes Russia and China will not stand idly by, and are engaging in discrete communication with Trump, warning him about the global consequences.
• Scott Ritter details the severe consequences of a war with Iran, including the potential destruction of Israeli infrastructure and attacks on energy production facilities.
• He emphasizes that Iran's missile capabilities are highly accurate and difficult to defend against, potentially removing Israel from the map.
• Ritter criticizes the US defense budget and the production of plutonium pits, indicating a continued arms race.
• He highlights the Russian advantage in advanced weaponry, including their new missile systems, and expresses concern that the US is "flying blind" and underestimating Russia's capabilities.
• The rhetoric within Russia, including calls for nuclear strikes on Europe, is mentioned, though Putin is seen as more pragmatic.

"The Israelis are panicking right now. Because if Trump doesn't attack, then Israel won't be able to do this again. This was supposed to be the big move. This is supposed to be the regime change."

The Archnik Missile and US-Russia Relations [01:03:07]

• The discussion shifts to the Archnik missile, with Ritter explaining its capabilities and the Russians' strategic use of it.
• The attack on Putin's residence is central to the discussion, with the US accused of involvement through providing technology.
• Ritter details the Archnik's ability to hit multiple dispersed targets with precision, demonstrating its advanced capabilities.
• He notes that the missile is now in serial production and being deployed to operational brigades, signaling a significant escalation in Russia's strategic posture.
• The Russian government is described as "furious" about the attack on Putin's residence, and there's concern that this could lead to further escalation, including nuclear threats.
• Ray McGovern expresses that while Putin is furious, he remains calm and collected, and the Russian response blaming terrorists in Ukraine could be a way to manage the situation.
• The lack of a US response to the evidence provided by Russia regarding the attack is seen as a critical litmus test for future relations.
• The expiration of the New START treaty is a major concern, with fears that the US is actively pursuing an arms race, making arms control dead.

"The Russians are furious about this. They're furious about this because this isn't a CIA accident. This is directed activity by the CIA directed by the president of the United States who's covering for the CIA right now."