El Nino could worsen ‘perfect storm’ threatening global food security: Economist

CNA

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Video Summary

Indonesia is grappling with intensifying wildfires and severe haze blanketing communities, exacerbated by a potent El Nino bringing drier conditions and a more severe dry season. Over 107,000 hectares have burned this year, a 110% increase from 2023, with strong winds fanning the flames and making containment difficult.

Economist Dr. David Ubilava warns that the confluence of extreme weather events, including El Nino's impact on crops globally, poses a serious threat to food security and prices. While the global food system has some buffer, low-income countries dependent on imports are particularly vulnerable. Potential export restrictions on key commodities like rice, driven by fears of domestic shortages, could further destabilize global markets and increase prices for importing nations.

Short Highlights

Wildfires rage across Indonesia's Kalimantan, destroying crops and plantations.
A severe El Nino is intensifying dry conditions, making fires harder to contain.
Over 107,000 hectares have burned in Indonesia this year, a 110% increase from 2023.
El Nino's global impact poses a serious threat to food security and prices.
Low-income countries dependent on imports are most vulnerable to price hikes and shortages.
Export restrictions on key crops like rice could worsen global availability.

Key Details

Indonesia's Wildfire Crisis [0:00]

Wildfires are devastating parts of Indonesia's Kalimantan, destroying crops and plantations.
Thick haze from the blazes is blanketing communities around Pontianak.
Residents report strong winds are fanning flames, hindering containment efforts.

"The blazes are also blanketing communities around Pontianak in thick haze, raising concerns as conditions turn increasingly dry."

Soaring Land Burned [0:34]

The Indonesian forestry ministry reports over 107,000 hectares burned in the first six months of this year.
This represents a 110% increase compared to the same period in 2023.
The current El Nino is intensifying, bringing drier conditions and a more severe dry season.

"That's a 110% increase from the same period in 2023, when El Nino last had a significant impact on the archipelago."

Global Food Security at Risk [1:06]

Dr. David Ubilava discusses the serious threat to global food security and prices from extreme weather events.
The current El Nino is described as unprecedented and is expected to strengthen.
Impacts will continue into the next year, affecting regions like Southeast Asia, Australia, and parts of America.

"So there is no doubt that we are going to have stronger El Nino as the year progresses."

"Perfect Storm" for Food Shortages [2:56]

Food insecurity is compounded by conflict zones like Gaza, Ukraine, and Sudan.
Factors like fertilizer access disruptions and climate impacts on behavior contribute to the crisis.
The current year is a "perfect storm" with pre-existing issues worsened by the developing El Nino.

"So this year is a bit of a perfect storm because things were not already great to begin with."

Global Food System Resilience [3:37]

The global food system has a buffer, but a slight decline in production and demand figures is noted.
Low-income countries dependent on imports are at greater risk than higher-income nations.
Vietnam faces floods, while Thailand experiences drought, impacting rice production.

"But if we are talking about low-income countries that are dependent on imports of given cereals or other commodities, that's where these things can be a bit tougher than in normal years."

Potential for Export Restrictions [4:14]

Governments may impose export bans on crops like rice to protect domestic supply amid fears of shortages.
Such bans would reduce global commodity availability, worsening the situation for importing countries.
Regions dependent on rice imports are expected to struggle and face higher prices.

"So your question, if El Nino and El Nino-related weather shocks sort of manifest themselves as projected, then there is good chance that we will see some of those restrictions imposed."