Russia hardline position, talks with Trump exhausted

The deputy foreign minister of Russia has indicated that diplomatic efforts with the United States, initiated around the time of a meeting between leaders in Alaska, have been exhausted. He stated there has been no progress on resolving underlying issues, the conflict in Ukraine, or Russia's proposals on strategic arms control, airlinks, and embassy unblocking. The blame for this stagnation is placed on Europeans, not the current U.S. administration, though an implicit criticism of the U.S. president is present, suggesting he is unable to move forward with these matters.

This assessment aligns with broader Russian sentiment, as recent statements from Putin, including an interview about potential territorial expansion in Ukraine and a meeting with generals, suggest a shift toward a more hardline stance. This indicates Russia may be preparing to move beyond previous diplomatic frameworks and focus on military objectives, potentially escalating actions if diplomatic avenues remain unproductive. The speaker highlights a perceived inability of U.S. leadership to understand or effectively respond to Russian messaging, leading to a belief that Russia is nearing a point of abandoning efforts to engage with the current administration.

The analysis suggests a growing disconnect between Russian expectations and U.S. actions, with Russia feeling that its efforts have been unheeded and that the U.S. administration is either stringing them along or is too weak to follow through. This, coupled with perceived U.S. support for actions like potential long-range missile strikes into Russia and attempts to block the Baltic Sea, leads to the conclusion that Russia is reassessing its strategy and may opt for more direct action and a focus on winning the conflict in Ukraine.

• Russia's deputy foreign minister has declared that diplomatic efforts with the United States have been exhausted, with no progress on key issues like Ukraine and arms control.
• The blame for this diplomatic stagnation is being placed on European nations, not the current U.S. administration.
• Recent statements from Russian leadership, including Putin, suggest a potential shift towards a more assertive, hardline policy, possibly involving military escalations and territorial expansion in Ukraine.
• There is a perception that the U.S. leadership struggles to understand or effectively respond to Russian diplomatic signals, leading Russia to consider abandoning engagement with the current administration.
• Proposed actions by Europe, such as blocking the Baltic Sea and seizing Russian tankers, are seen as escalatory and are met with Russian countermeasures, including naval deployments for protection, raising the risk of naval clashes.

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Russia-US Diplomatic Stalemate Declared [0:00]

• Statements from Russia's deputy foreign minister suggest that diplomatic relations with the United States, particularly those initiated around a meeting between leaders in Alaska, have been exhausted.
• There has been no forward movement on resolving underlying problems between the two nations.
• No progress has been made on the conflict in Ukraine, nor on Russia's recent proposals for strategic arms control, including the extension of the New START treaty and negotiations for future arms control.
• Efforts to reestablish airlinks and unblock embassies have also stalled, indicating a frozen state of diplomatic contacts.
• The blame for this situation is being placed on Europeans, with no criticism directed at the U.S. president or administration.
• Despite this, an implicit criticism of the U.S. president is noted, suggesting he is unable to advance the diplomatic process.

The relationship between Russia and the United States is a house full of cracks and the cracks are now reaching down to the very foundations.

This section highlights the official Russian assessment of a complete breakdown in diplomatic engagement with the United States, attributing the failure to external pressures and an inability of the U.S. president to steer a different course.

Shifting Russian Stance and Potential Escalation [6:22]

• A recent interview saw Putin openly suggesting the military might expand its operations beyond the current four regions in Ukraine to safeguard Russian security.
• This implies the military is being given a green light for such actions.
• This occurred shortly before Putin met with generals in St. Petersburg, where no clear explanation for the meeting was provided.
• The context suggests Russia is preparing for a deeper confrontation with the West.
• Russia's messaging to the U.S. and Europe is not always straightforward, requiring careful parsing of statements from officials like Ryabkov and Putin.
• There are doubts about the ability of some U.S. officials and diplomats to accurately interpret Russian messaging.

The military are being given a kind of green light to do that.

This segment points to a significant shift in Russian strategy, moving from diplomatic engagement to a more aggressive posture, including potential military expansion in Ukraine.

Internal Debates and U.S. Policy Inconsistencies [10:13]

• There is a lack of understanding between the Russian and American political systems, with both sides struggling to interpret each other's messages.
• Russia appears to have largely stopped paying attention to what certain European leaders say or think.
• Historically, Russia and the U.S. had a relationship accustomed to reading and understanding each other's signals, a dynamic that seems to be lost.
• There is an ongoing debate within Russia about the direction of policy, with Putin having invested significant time in engaging with the U.S. president, but other elites, including the military and Foreign Minister Lavrov, hold different views.
• Putin, historically a moderate voice, is now being pushed towards the hardliners, similar to the approach taken with the special military operation.

The Russians are still playing according to that copy book because they still imagine that people like Ray McGovern and people like that are there in the CIA doing the kind of analysis and providing that kind of update to Trump and I don't think they understand that those days in Washington are long since gone.

This part of the discussion delves into the internal dynamics within Russia and the perceived difficulties in understanding and responding to U.S. policy, which is seen as inconsistent and driven by hardliners.

U.S. Leadership and Decision-Making Challenges [14:11]

• The U.S. president has also moved towards a hardline position, aligning with figures and policies that favor escalation, such as providing long-range missiles to Ukraine.
• There is anticipation of new military actions, possibly involving long-range missiles, with at least the implicit blessing and likely behind-the-scenes support of the United States.
• Reports suggest key advisors are departing, potentially leaving the U.S. administration with few individuals engaged in diplomacy.
• The U.S. president's administration is characterized as being largely comprised of hardliners.
• Despite moments of potential de-escalation or dialogue, the president ultimately reverts to the policies favored by neoconservatives and hardliners.
• There is a lack of individuals within the White House advising the president to de-escalate or normalize relations with Russia, suggesting a focus on confrontation.

I just get this sense that there's no one in the Trump administration telling him, "Mr. President, stop. Don't listen to these fools."

This section focuses on the internal workings of the U.S. administration, highlighting the president's susceptibility to hardline influences and a perceived absence of voices advocating for diplomatic solutions.

European Actions and Russian Countermeasures [26:45]

• Russia is likely to continue advancing in Ukraine and focus on winning the war, moving beyond previous diplomatic proposals like "Istanbul plus."
• There are plans being discussed in Europe to block the Baltic Sea and seize Russian tankers, which carry oil from Russia but fly third-country flags.
• Such actions are expected to provoke a widespread reaction from Russia and potentially other countries like India and China, who have already issued warnings.
• Russia has announced plans to deploy warships to protect ships carrying Russian oil on the high seas, setting the stage for potential naval clashes.
• The risks for Europeans in attempting to close the Baltic are considered too great, with growing doubts about the feasibility of such plans.

The Russians have also said what they're going to do, which is that Patrey who is in overall charge of the Russian Navy has already spoken about the Russian Navy being deployed to operate a um a um convoy system.

This part details potential escalatory moves by European nations and Russia's anticipated response, including naval deployments and a shift away from diplomatic negotiations towards military objectives.

Future Russian Strategy and Escalation [31:04]

• Russia is moving beyond previous proposals like "Istanbul plus," indicating that future proposals will be harder and may not include Ukraine joining the EU or limit territorial acquisitions to the current four regions.
• While military escalations within Europe might not be beneficial for Russia, escalations in other regions are being considered.
• Reports suggest Russia is considering providing fighter jets to Iran and increasing its involvement there.
• The original purpose of U.S. outreach to Russia was to stabilize conflicts, and without Russian help, this stabilization may not occur.
• Russia is likely to state "no more Istanbul plus" and cease negotiations, focusing instead on advancing in Ukraine and winning the war.

The most important thing is that the most immediate thing is that the Russians will say, "No more Istanbul plus no more negotiations at all. Let's just keep advancing in Ukraine and let's focus on winning the war."

This final segment outlines Russia's projected future strategy, emphasizing a move towards more assertive military actions and a decisive focus on achieving victory in Ukraine, with diminished interest in diplomatic negotiations.