Perfect Analysis Run Down

Bitcoin Hits $72K: Analyst Proves Long-Term Bullish Call [0:00]

• The analyst initiates a "clout collection" stream to review past predictions, emphasizing his consistent bullish stance on Bitcoin since the bottom.
• He highlights that while many predicted a drop to $40K or $50K, he remained long, anticipating Bitcoin's rise to $72K-$73K.
• The stream aims to prove the accuracy of his analysis by revisiting previous live streams and market updates.

"I've been saying I've been long Bitcoin since the bottom and I've been waiting for $72, $73K. Not for a few days. Not for a few weeks. But for a couple months now, every single live stream, I've been saying I'm long."

Inverse Cramer and Market Sentiment [2:00]

• The analyst points to Jim Cramer's prediction to sell Bitcoin just days before a significant price pump as an example of the "inverse Cramer" phenomenon.
• He notes that such contrarian indicators often signal opportune moments to buy.

"Jim Kramer saying he's going to sell all of his Bitcoin literally two days before the biggest pump in the last, you know, six months or whatever. Unbelievable. Kramer never disappoints."

Hyperliquid and Ethereum's Rise [3:00]

• Discussion touches on the first CFTC-registered Bitcoin perpetual futures contract on Hyperliquid.
• The analyst also contrasts Ethereum's past price around $1,600 with its current value, noting that buying at lower levels over the past three years would have been profitable.

"First off, first off, you can't, this is, I hope your portfolio, I hope your, you know, P&Ls are looking like this right now. But second off, Kramer, Kramer, Kramer with the one and only, the one and only inverse Kramer never fails, never fails."

Bad News, Good Price: A Bullish Signal [4:00]

• The analyst explains a key analytical principle: when significant negative news occurs (like a Bitcoin hardware wallet hack or Michael Saylor selling $100M+ in BTC) but the price rises, it's a strongly bullish indicator.
• This phenomenon suggests underlying strength and demand that overcomes negative sentiment.

"Bitcoin hardware wallets get hacked. Let's see. Let me see. August 4th. Bitcoin hardware gets hacked. And the price doesn't move. Michael Saylor sells over $100 million worth of BTC. And the price goes up. Bad news. Something, something. Price. Up."

Reviewing Past Market Updates [5:00]

• The analyst navigates to his "CoinBureau trading" channel to access previous "market updates" from August.
• He states the goal is not just to show he was right, but to educate viewers on the "why" behind the analysis.

"So we're going to be going through these right now and, you know, sharing with you, not just, not just like, hey, look, yeah, look, I called it, you know, yeah, yes, my analysis was perfect, right? But literally, why? Like, why?"

Higher Timeframes for Better Judgment [5:30]

• Referencing an August 13th analysis, the analyst explains the importance of using higher timeframes for market direction.
• He notes that while lower timeframes might have looked bearish, higher timeframes indicated an upward trend.

"Lewis talks about using higher timeframes to give you better judgments on where the market might go. Higher timeframes are much more powerful than lower timeframes."

Technicals: Weekly Engulfing Candle and Divergence [6:00]

• Despite bearish signals on lower timeframes in August, the analyst identified a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe.
• He also observed bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD on higher timeframes, reinforcing a bullish outlook.

"The fact that it made a, a base, it fell below the base. And then it had that engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe with, plus there was, I could have sworn there was a bullish divergence here."

Fundamentals and News Impact [7:00]

• The analyst reiterates that fundamental news, such as Michael Saylor's sale and the hardware wallet hack, did not negatively impact Bitcoin's price.
• This resilience in the face of bad news is interpreted as a very bullish sign.

"So the facts are like the news, the fundamentals are, are saying that it's bullish in terms of news and versus price. Right."

Market Structure Break and Uptrend [8:00]

• The analysis details how Bitcoin's market structure shifted from lower highs and lower lows to a break of structure, indicating a potential new uptrend.
• A higher high on the larger timeframe confirmed this shift, suggesting pullbacks were opportunities to enter the uptrend.

"But now we have a market structure break because this high, this high right here is higher than the previous high. So now we have a market structure break."

Trading Within Key Zones [9:00]

• The analyst stresses the importance of identifying and trading only within key areas of support and resistance.
• He explains that most price action between these zones is "noise" and can be ignored to simplify trading and increase win rates.

"99% of what happens in between those big areas is simply noise. And to make things as simple as possible, what you can do is you can trade only within the big zones that you plot out."

"Things Are Better Than It Seems" Analysis [10:00]

• Reviewing a stream from two weeks prior (August 6th), titled "Things Are Better Than It Seems," the analyst recalls the widespread bearish sentiment.
• He reiterates that despite the worst news in years, the price did not fall, confirming his bullish thesis.

"So, first off, I talk about how the markets were experiencing the worst news in years, yet the price didn't go down. Bullish signal."

News vs. Price: The Four Scenarios [10:30]

• The analyst outlines four scenarios for news and price movement: Good News/Price Up (Good), Good News/Price Down (Bad), Bad News/Price Down (Normal/Bad), and Bad News/Price Up (Very Bullish).
• He emphasizes that "Bad News/Price Up" is the most bullish scenario.

"However, when you get bad news, like how we had the bad news plus price up, that equals very, very, very bullish, okay? That's very good."

Long Positions Since $61K [11:00]

• The analyst confirms he has been long on Bitcoin since around $61K, anticipating a target of $72K-$73K.
• He explains that this conviction was based on the "bad news plus price up" narrative and technical analysis.

"I have been long. I've literally been long since around 61K, since this area, okay? And I'm still long."

The 200-Day Moving Average and Breakout [12:00]

• The analyst discusses the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA) around the $70K-$72K levels.
• He predicted a strong upward move once Bitcoin broke through this resistance, which subsequently occurred.

"Why wouldn't it, like, if it's going to continue going up because of the bad news plus price up narrative that I have here, well, then I don't see why it wouldn't go up to 72K."

Time Factor in Market Cycles [13:00]

• The analyst explains that he shorted or sold in previous market cycles because not enough time had passed since the previous high to justify bullishness.
• This time, however, he felt sufficient time had elapsed, combined with bullish signals, to remain long.

"This is the first time where I'm like, you know what, there's a, I think we're going to keep on going higher. I think we're going to keep on going higher, you know, over than this right here."

Identifying a Higher Low [14:00]

• The analyst details how Bitcoin formed a higher low, breaking the previous downtrend pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
• This formation on lower and higher timeframes confirmed his belief in an ongoing uptrend.

"So, so this is what I'm saying. The lower timeframe right here, these were the, this was, this was a little bit bearish. And you might think, oh no, I want to sell. However, looking at the bigger picture, the fact that first it made a higher high and then a higher low on the bigger picture that makes you think that should make you think that this right here isn't just like a continuation of a downtrend, but more so a pullback in a new uptrend."

Monthly Chart Bearishness and Caution [15:00]

• Despite the recent rally, the analyst expresses caution due to a bearish monthly candle from May.
• He notes that this bearish candle is the primary reason he's hesitant to declare the absolute bottom of the bear market, suggesting a potential rejection around $73K-$84K.

"Look like this monthly candle right here back in May. That is actually, that is still very, very, very bearish. Like, there's no doubt that, that this is a very bearish monthly candle."

Elliot Wave Theory and Potential Rejection [15:30]

• The analyst briefly touches on Elliot Wave theory, suggesting a potential five-wave pattern.
• He questions if the current move might be a fourth wave up before a fifth wave down, noting the potential invalidation of the pattern if wave three was not the largest down move.

"Typically there's like five waves down, right? So we have one, two, three, and now I'm looking for this fourth wave up. Um, and then another, and then a fifth wave down."

Signs of a Market Top [16:00]

• The analyst outlines indicators for a potential market top: decreasing size of green candles, appearance of red candles, and long wicks on bearish candles after an impulsive move.
• He emphasizes that tops usually involve consolidation or distribution, not a straight drop.

"If once the big green candles start to, uh, lower in size. So they go from like that, you know, to like that, to like this, right. And they just get smaller and smaller and smaller."

Discernment in Analysis: Focusing on Key Levels [17:00]

• The importance of discernment is highlighted: paying attention only to significant price levels and ignoring minor fluctuations.
• This approach helps avoid overtrading and emotional decisions.

"Do you pay attention to every little tick and tack in the market? Or do you actually, um, like, you know, only pay attention in the, in the spots that actually matter?"

Taking Profits at Resistance [17:30]

• The analyst plans to take profits around the $71K-$74K resistance area, specifically targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $73,200.
• He will look for bearish price action on lower timeframes as a cue to exit positions.

"I'm going to be looking for, you know, shorting opportunity. I'm going to be looking at the price action. And if the price action starts to slow down in many different ways, then I'll take my profits and I'll just like chill out for a little bit and just wait."

Shifting from Risk-On to Risk-Off [18:00]

• Having been "risk-on" for the past month and a half, the analyst plans to transition to a "risk-off" stance as Bitcoin approaches major resistance.
• This involves reducing exposure and potentially exiting the market due to uncertainty about the rally's duration.

"I was risk on, I've been risk on for, for the last month and a half. Now I'm starting to become a lot of it, a little bit more risk off and I would like to become risk off and be out of the market and not be, not be in the market."

Consistency and Data-Driven Analysis [18:30]

• The analyst expresses respect for other traders who demonstrate consistency and use data and logical thinking, even if they are not always correct.
• He contrasts this with fear-mongering influencers who lack data-driven analysis.

"I have respect for them and you should have respect for them as well because they're using analysis. They're using data, they're using logical thinking, you know, and they're just going with it."

Stablecoin Dominance as a Bullish Indicator [19:00]

• The analyst points to bearish USDT and USDC dominance charts as a bullish sign for cryptocurrencies.
• When stablecoin dominance falls, it indicates that capital is moving out of stablecoins and into riskier assets like Bitcoin.

"USDT charts, USDC charts. These are bearish. These are very bearish. And when these two dominance levels, these two dominance charts are bearish, that is very bullish for crypto."

Reviewing Past Analysis for Future Improvement [20:00]

• The core message of the stream is the importance of reviewing past analyses and trades to become a better trader.
• Understanding the reasoning behind past decisions, especially successful ones, is crucial for future success.

"The reason I'm going back and I'm sharing all of this is to make you a better trader. If you can't see that going back and reviewing your analysis in the past, especially when it works out, makes you a better trader, then you're not a trader."

The Bottom: July 9th Analysis [21:00]

• The analyst revisits a July 9th stream where sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish, yet he saw signs that the bottom might be in.
• He notes that even smart individuals were discussing the possibility of a bottom, contrasting with the general fear.

"July 9th. Just bearish sentiment everywhere. And, um, one thing that I saw, another thing that I saw along with, you know, along with that one tweet that I, that I mentioned before is that I see, um, I see people who are actually really, really smart saying that the bottom might be in."

Institutional Orders and Higher Lows [21:30]

• The analyst discusses how large institutions often need to fill orders, leading to price retracements to previous support levels.
• These levels can form higher lows, confirming the start of a new uptrend.

"So, but they don't get all of their orders filled. So the price, a lot of the times actually comes back down to the original part of where the move, you know, uh, formed, which in this case would be around $64,800 and bounces from there."

Closing Above Key Resistance for Confirmation [22:00]

• For strong bullish confirmation, the analyst states Bitcoin needs to close above the weekly high of $82,193.
• Until then, he remains cautious about a sustained new all-time high.

"The weekly high is at 80, 82,193 dollars. Right. So that's, that's the last weekly high really. Right. And so we, if we want to actually be really bullish, like you have to close above there."

Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy [23:00]

• The analyst reiterates that dollar-cost averaging is most effective when prices are moving down, allowing for a lower average buy price.
• He mentions accumulating coins like Morphine, Lighter, and Hype during the bear market.

"You want to be dollar cost averaging into things on the way down. You don't want to be dollar cost averaging into things while they're pumping up."

Trading Plan and Emotional Control [24:00]

• The importance of having a plan and sticking to it is emphasized, particularly in managing emotions like FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
• Setting alerts for key price levels helps execute the plan calmly, rather than reacting emotionally.

"You got to plan your trades and trade your plans."

USDT Dominance Chart Analysis [25:00]

• The analyst shows the USDT dominance chart, highlighting how it hit resistance and printed bearish price action.
• This bearish formation on stablecoin dominance indicates money flowing into cryptocurrencies.

"So when stable coin dominance prints very bearish looking price action, that means that the price that people are moving out of stable coins and moving into cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin."

Consistent Analysis and Learning [26:00]

• The stream concludes by reinforcing the value of reviewing past analyses to learn and improve one's own trading strategies.
• The analyst stresses that consistency and data-driven decision-making are key, regardless of perfect accuracy.

"Looking back, reviewing your old trade, reviewing my old trades, my old analysis and understanding the reasoning why, and then you could use that in your own analysis in the future."