Analyst Called Bitcoin Top; Reveals 2026 Forecast | Ben Cowen

Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle and Apathetic Top [00:00]

• October is identified as the four-year cycle top for Bitcoin, with the current bare market resembling the style of 2019.
• This cycle's top occurred on apathy rather than euphoria, a key differentiator from previous cycles like 2017 and 2021.
• The duration of this cycle's accumulation phase (1,062 days) is very similar to previous cycles (1,059 and 1,068 days).

"So, while the 4-year cycle top occurred when it always does, what's really interesting is if you look at the bare markets, if you look at the current bare market and compare it to the last couple, you can see that we're actually, you know, we're actually well above what we were like at this point. In prior bare markets, Bitcoin had already dropped like 50% or more at some point, 50 to 70%. This time, it hasn't."

The 2019 Analogy and Market Structure [04:52]

• The current market conditions, particularly topping on apathy, draw strong parallels to the 2019 Bitcoin market.
• In 2019, Bitcoin topped in June, two months before the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening (QT) in August.
• This cycle, Bitcoin topped in October, with the Fed ending QT in December, indicating a similar timing relative to monetary policy shifts.
• The current bare market is tracking the 2019 bare market closely, characterized by a slower bleed than previous cycles.

"So, when you actually look at this bare market compared to the bare market that came off of that 2019 high, it actually looks like we're tracking it pretty closely."

Federal Reserve Policy and Bitcoin's Response [06:26]

• The relationship between the Fed funds rate and Bitcoin's price movement is examined, noting Bitcoin rallied in 2023 while the Fed continued to raise rates.
• This rallying stopped around October/September of the current year, and Fed fund rate moves appear to have predated Bitcoin's moves since 2023.
• It's argued that Bitcoin's struggle might be due to rates remaining restrictive rather than rate cuts themselves, and possibly a protest for insufficient rate cuts.
• Historically, Bitcoin bottomed and turned around after several rate cuts and took off when rates went to zero.

"I think the reason why Bitcoin is struggling is not because of the rate cuts. You could argue it's because we're still in restrictive territory with the Fed funds rate."

Bitcoin Dominance and Investor Behavior [09:16]

• During periods of high interest rates (2022-2025), investors tend to favor lower-risk assets, leading to a pile-in to Bitcoin, Magnificent 7 stocks, and gold/silver.
• This uncertainty drives investment into perceived "blue chips" within each asset class, with Bitcoin seen as a survival bet in crypto.
• As rates come down, investors may take on more risk, potentially shifting capital away from Bitcoin.

"So people pile into the blue chips when they're faced with uncertainty because they're not confident that the micro caps of every of every asset class will survive that uncertainty that they think is coming."

The Bull Case and Nvidia/Google Comparison [15:13]

• The bull case for Bitcoin, if the four-year cycle is wrong, suggests a scenario where Bitcoin makes a slightly higher high and sweeps a previous low, then rallies to a new all-time high.
• This pattern was observed in Nvidia and Google last year, where they experienced a higher high, swept a low, and then rallied to new all-time highs.
• However, a similar setup in 2019, where Bitcoin swept a low and rallied to $10,000 before falling again, serves as a cautionary tale.
• The current price action is roughly a 10x multiple of the 2019 move if Bitcoin drops to the $73-74K range.

"So, if you look at the Nvidia price chart, um you'll see what I'm talking about, right? So, Nvidia also had a slightly higher high. It swept the low and then it went to a new all-time high."

Altcoin Market Outlook and Zcash Surge [19:14]

• A massive rotation into altcoins leading to an "alt season" is not expected, similar to 2019, due to topping on apathy.
• Retail interest in crypto has been declining, unlike in 2017 and 2021 when it trended upwards before alt seasons.
• While individual altcoins might reach new all-time highs (e.g., Zcash's 700% rise), the collective altcoin market is expected to struggle.
• Despite short-term gains, Bitcoin is considered a better long-term investment than most altcoins, which tend to bleed against Bitcoin over extended periods.

"So, yes, you could have some alts go to all-time highs, but I don't think you'll have a a massive rotation in the altcoins that leads to an alt season, if that makes sense."

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500: Leading Indicator? [31:01]

• Bitcoin is not a clear-cut leading indicator for the stock market, though it often leads liquidity trends (M2).
• In 2019, Bitcoin topped in June while the stock market continued to rise for months before crashing.
• The argument is made that Bitcoin might follow the 2019 move against the S&P 500 until the S&P experiences a significant correction, as the Fed would likely intervene to support stocks.
• A large correction in the stock market or a shift to a more dovish Fed chair could trigger a "QE bull market."

"So, what you could argue, you could almost argue right now, which is kind of insane, but what you could argue is that Bitcoin will likely follow this 2019 move against the S&P until the S&P gets a large correction, right?"

Bitcoin Dominance Forecast and Precious Metals [36:13]

• Bitcoin dominance is expected to rise back to near 66% before any significant alt season occurs, mirroring the last cycle's pattern where dominance spiked in the QE phase of the bull market.
• The current cycle's bare market from late 2025 into mid-to-late 2026 is being compared to the 2019 bare market.
• Precious metals are seen as a valuable portfolio hedge, especially given macro uncertainty. While they may drop during crises, they are expected to recover faster than stocks.
• A pullback and consolidation in metals are anticipated in early 2026, followed by potential gains towards the end of the decade.

"I do believe that Bitcoin dominance will go back up to 66. Like, I think it will go back up near the highs before you get any type of alt season if that makes sense."

Market Sentiment and Long-Term Outlook [44:17]

• Current bearish headlines are contrasted with the S&P 500 being close to an all-time high, suggesting a disconnect between news and charts.
• Negative sentiment in crypto has bled into other asset classes, possibly due to the lack of expected euphoria at year-end.
• A stock market correction in early 2026 is possible, but it may not signal the absolute end of the market cycle.
• Investors are advised against being overly deterministic about market outcomes, as historical recessions have varied in severity.

"I think what what I could see happening, David, is is some type of a correction by the stock market in early 2026 making people think it's truly over, but it still might not be over because normally when it is over, people you don't see those news articles before it's over."