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The unhinged world of tech in 2026...

The unhinged world of tech in 2026...

Fireship

1,028,858 views 6 days ago

Video Summary

The video forecasts technological trends for 2026, highlighting the continued hype around AI, but noting a plateau in LLM intelligence. Despite job market shifts and the rise of AI coding tools, software engineering jobs are projected to grow, with a new role of "code janitors" emerging. The AI bubble is expected to persist, potentially fueled by major IPOs from companies like SpaceX and OpenAI. Humanoid robots are poised for wider adoption, and wearable AI tech, despite past failures, may see advancements. The chip industry, particularly designers like Nvidia and ARM, will continue to benefit from AI's insatiable demand. The video also touches on the resurgence of nuclear power for data centers, breakthroughs in quantum computing, the push for digital IDs and CBDCs, and advancements in JavaScript frameworks.

A fascinating projection is the potential for nuclear power to fuel data centers, with companies like Olo working on small modular reactors that could provide self-contained power sources, potentially even integrated into neighborhoods.

Short Highlights

  • Software engineering job growth is predicted at 15% through 2034, despite AI coding tools.
  • The H1B visa program now has a $100,000 fee, impacting overseas hiring for US tech companies.
  • The AI bubble is expected to continue for at least another decade, with major IPOs anticipated from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
  • Humanoid robots like 1X Neo, Figure Robots, and Tesla Optimus are expected to see wider adoption for various tasks.
  • Chip designers like Nvidia and ARM are set to profit significantly from the high demand for AI processing.
  • Nuclear power may see a resurgence to meet the electricity demands of AI-driven data centers.
  • Quantum computing is making strides, with practical applications becoming more feasible, potentially overshadowing the AI bubble.
  • The push for digital IDs and central bank-backed digital currencies (CBDCs) is ongoing, despite public reluctance.
  • JavaScript development continues to evolve with improvements in Node.js, Dino, and the emergence of bunjs.

Key Details

The Evolving Tech Landscape and Job Market [00:00]

  • The year 2026 is depicted as a future where AI is deeply integrated, from smart appliances to AI bosses and robotic companions.
  • Last year's prediction of AI agents' dominance was accurate, though missed for financial gain.
  • The tech industry is characterized by overengineering and a perpetual beta state, fueled by a seemingly endless supply of money, contingent on a stable stock market.
  • Emerging trends in 2026 are anticipated to be even more significant than previous ones.

Welcome to the future. It's somehow both overengineered and still in beta.

Software Engineering Jobs in the Age of AI [01:00]

  • Despite the rise of AI coding tools post-2023 tech pullback, stable, high-paying software engineering jobs are still a desirable path.
  • Job openings for software engineers on platforms like Indeed have not fully recovered to their previous levels.
  • However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts a 15% growth in software development jobs through 2034.
  • A significant change to the H1B program now requires a $100,000 fee for non-US born applicants, making it harder for US tech companies to hire overseas talent.
  • AI coding tools are not yet close to replacing human engineers, and the "vibe coded slop" generated by AI is creating new jobs for "code janitors" to clean up the code.

Unfortunately, the good old days of 2023 don't seem like they're coming back after the 2023 tech pullback and the rise of AI coding tools that followed.

The AI Bubble and its Trajectory [02:12]

  • The current AI valuations are considered a bubble, with the debate centering on whether the peak is near or still a decade away.
  • The hype cycle for AI is expected to continue for at least a few more years.
  • Large Language Models (LLMs) have plateaued in terms of intelligence, with GPT-5 being a disappointment and not showing exponential leaps.
  • Current AI technology is still impressive, and the trend is still in its early stages.
  • AI is increasingly displacing jobs in fields like spreadsheets, mid-level management, and graphic design.
  • Most AI companies remain private, indicating that the bubble is not yet over, with a wave of IPOs expected to signal its end, possibly in 2026 with companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic going public.

But don't get me wrong, though. The current AI technology is legit amazing.

The Rise of Humanoid Robots and Wearable AI [03:34]

  • Humanoid robots are a major driver for the AI hype in 2026, with companies like 1X, Figure Robots, and Tesla Optimus developing robots for various tasks, from household chores to factory labor.
  • While the current technology for these robots is rudimentary and requires significant remote operation, foundational tech from Google and Nvidia is enabling new ventures.
  • Wearable AI tech is another significant trend, despite previous failures like the Rabbit and Humane Pin. OpenAI is collaborating with Johnny IV on new wearable devices.
  • Innovative products like Nike's battery-powered shoes suggest advancements in wearable technology with practical applications.

2026 is the year we'll finally see these things roll off of assembly lines.

The Future of Virtual and Augmented Reality and Chip Demand [04:38]

  • The Apple Vision Pro, predicted to be a flop, may see a turnaround with a rumored lower-cost version.
  • Meta is heavily investing in augmented reality, but the VR/AR space is expected to remain an unprofitable niche despite impressive technology.
  • The lion's share of profits in the tech sector will continue to flow to chip designers like Nvidia and ARM, and fabricators like Taiwan Semiconductor, driven by the insatiable demand for AI processing.
  • Intel, despite a near collapse in 2025, is poised for a turnaround with US government investment, making it too big to fail.

AI mania has created an insatiable demand for linear algebra.

Nuclear Power and Quantum Computing's Potential [05:48]

  • Cloud providers face challenges with electricity supply for their AI hardware, potentially leading to a resurgence in nuclear power.
  • Small modular reactors (SMRs) from companies like Olo are being developed to provide self-contained power sources for data centers and potentially neighborhoods.
  • Mark Zuckerberg's deal with Olo to place a reactor in Ohio exemplifies this trend.
  • Quantum computing saw significant advancements in 2025 with Google's Willow chip and its quantum echoes algorithm.
  • Quantum computers have now run verifiable algorithms that surpass supercomputer capabilities, signaling the potential for practical applications that could dwarf the AI bubble.

When quantum computing hits version 1.0, it'll make the AI bubble look like child's play.

Digital IDs, CBDCs, and JavaScript Evolution [07:13]

  • European tech leaders are making strides, although the focus shifts to less conventional areas like water bottle caps.
  • The push for digital IDs and central bank-backed digital currencies (CBDCs) is being driven by bureaucrats, despite a lack of public demand, leading to concerns about government control over personal data.
  • The Eurozone's digital euro pilot is moving into its next phase, with full issuance expected by 2029.
  • JavaScript continues to evolve, with Node.js improving, Dino gaining features like a module bundler, and bunjs emerging as a fast runtime with built-in support for databases.
  • While ReactJS still dominates front-end development, its compiler is now stable, and alternatives like Svelte, Vue, and Angular are still considered.
  • Ripple is highlighted as a new JavaScript technology to watch in 2026.

They can take our lives and they can take our freedom but they can't take our JavaScript.

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