I’ll Probably Lose My Job to AI. Here’s Why That’s OK | Megan J. McArdle | TED

The speaker expresses a personal fear of AI, not due to existential threats, but because of its potential to displace workers and undermine professions like journalism. While acknowledging the validity of concerns about technological disruption, drawing a parallel to the historical Luddites who destroyed machinery, the speaker argues that progress, despite its costs, ultimately benefits humanity. This perspective is rooted in the belief that embracing innovation, even with its disruptive effects, is crucial for future prosperity and that halting it would be akin to stealing from future generations.

The core argument is that the benefits of past technological advancements, which were often unforeseen and came at a human cost, have led to unprecedented improvements in living standards. To resist current innovation, like AI, would be to deny future generations the same potential for progress that we ourselves have inherited. The speaker uses historical examples, from the printing press to the industrial revolution, to illustrate how initial disruptions paved the way for remarkable societal advancements and improved quality of life, even for those who could not have initially conceived of such futures.

• The speaker fears AI will displace workers, including themselves as a journalist, by automating writing.
• Historical parallels are drawn to the Luddites, who resisted technological change, but the speaker argues against halting progress.
• Past technological advancements, despite initial negative impacts, have led to significant improvements in living standards and societal well-being.
• Halting innovation is framed as "stealing from the future" and denying descendants the benefits of progress.
• The current era's quality of life is presented as a "magical" inheritance that would be inconceivable to past generations, highlighting the cumulative nature of progress.

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AI and Job Displacement [0:04]

• The speaker spends a lot of time thinking about AI, specifically in terms of panic and its potential to displace workers, possibly including themselves.
• Even if AI safety is solved, job displacement is a significant concern.
• The speaker chose journalism 20 years ago with an expensive MBA, not for financial gain, but to do something that matters and that they love.
• AI is improving at writing, making the occupation of writing words potentially less profitable.

Even if we solve the AI safety problem, it's still going to displace a lot of workers, maybe including me.

This section focuses on the immediate personal and professional anxieties surrounding AI's capabilities and its potential impact on employment, particularly in creative fields like journalism.

Libertarianism and Progress [01:21]

• As a libertarian columnist, the speaker believes in progress and creative destruction.
• They find a point in the historical Luddites' concerns, explaining that "Luddites" is a broad term for technophobes, but the original Luddites were skilled artisans.
• These artisans faced competition from mechanized mill owners using new technologies like spinning jennies that drastically increased production speed.
• The Luddites' decision to destroy machines is presented with some sympathy, especially as AI technology advances.

We libertarians like to talk about the glories of progress, and they are glorious, but they are not free. Sometimes people get hurt, often lots of people.

This part introduces the speaker's libertarian perspective and connects it to the historical resistance to technological change, acknowledging the human cost involved in progress.

The Costs and Benefits of Progress [02:38]

• The printing press democratized knowledge but also led to witch burnings and wars of religion.
• The industrial revolution raised living standards but also brought grim factory jobs, squalid living conditions, and pollution.
• Modern governments can mitigate some costs, but they cannot fully restore lost ways of life.
• There's an obligation to count these costs, as dismissing fears as "stupid" is not persuasive.
• Despite the costs, the speaker believes we should be willing to bear them and let the future unfold.

The printing press democratized knowledge and also witch burnings and wars of religion.

This section details the dual nature of technological progress, highlighting both its positive societal advancements and its negative consequences throughout history.

An Unearned Inheritance and Obligation to the Future [03:24]

• We are all beneficiaries of past decisions to prioritize future growth over present protection.
• Few people today worry about basic survival needs like food, shelter, heat, or child mortality from diseases like diarrhea.
• Escaping these fundamental worries is due to massive chronological luck.
• This improved condition is a precious and unearned inheritance.
• There is an obligation to pay this forward and leave an even bigger legacy for future descendants.
• Failing to do so is a form of theft, stealing from the future.

We escaped them only through massive chronological luck. That is a precious and totally unearned inheritance.

This topic emphasizes the idea that our current comfortable existence is a gift from past generations' embrace of progress, creating a moral imperative to do the same for future generations.

The Consequences of Halting Progress [04:13]

• If the Luddites had halted progress, they would have effectively taken almost everything we have today to enrich themselves.
• A spinner selling a few spools of thread would mean no cars; a weaver selling a cloak would mean no refrigerators, heating, or education.
• The loss of innovation would lead to thousands of children dying from preventable diseases.
• When tempted to halt innovation that might affect one's job, one must consider how much they are willing to "steal" from future generations.

So, when you're tempted to halt the innovation that might compete for your job, you have to ask yourself, how much am I willing to steal from my grandkids?

This section vividly illustrates the potential consequences of stopping innovation by imagining a world without modern conveniences and advancements, framing it as a direct theft from the future.

Counterarguments and the Nature of Progress [05:11]

• Some might argue that current advancements (airplanes, mRNA vaccines, HBO) are different, or that progress isn't always great (global warming, endangered species).
• A lot of people in the past couldn't have imagined the current standard of living, where the average worker lives better than 19th-century royalty.
• The lack of Novacane for dental work serves as an analogy for progress, implying that even unpleasant advancements have significant benefits.
• While industrialization led to global warming, it also made us wealthy enough to pursue science and medicine and provided tools to combat ecological disaster.
• The full scope of progress, both good and bad, often can only be understood by living through the changes.

But my retort is that that doesn't work. The same industrial revolution that led to global warming has also made us so rich that we could afford to divert millions of workers from agriculture and weaving into science and medicine.

This part addresses common objections to continuous progress, arguing that even with its downsides, the overall trajectory has been overwhelmingly positive and has provided the means to address its own challenges.

The Cumulative and Unforeseeable Nature of Innovation [06:34]

• It's easier to picture near-term downsides of innovation than the long-term upsides.
• Progress is cumulative, and the longer it accumulates, the "weirder" and more advanced it becomes.
• Explaining current life to a Luddite from the past, or even an ordinary British working-class person from generations ago, would sound like a fairy tale.
• This includes advancements like mass post-secondary education, nursing homes, standardized time, pizza delivery, and the ability to wait out a pandemic at home.
• The development of vaccines during a pandemic, a concept unimaginable to past generations, highlights the "magic" of our current era.

We are living in fairyland. And indeed, we all have magic wands in our pockets.

This section emphasizes the cumulative and often unpredictable nature of innovation, illustrating how far human progress has come and how astonishing it would appear to those from earlier eras.

The Unforeseen Societal Impacts of Innovation [08:32]

• Mill owners in the past couldn't have imagined the future consequences of their innovations, just as Henry Ford didn't foresee the sexual revolution facilitated by automobiles.
• Innovators often focus on immediate profit, but society as a whole reaps the most significant benefits.
• The speaker reiterates their fear of AI but doesn't want a government handout, instead valuing their career.
• Ultimately, they remind themselves of the reasons why they shouldn't want to halt progress, as they are already living in a future better than past generations could have imagined.

But we're the ones who profited the most.

This final part ties the discussion back to the initial fear of AI, reinforcing the idea that while individual disruptions are concerning, the collective, long-term benefits of innovation are profound and far-reaching.