This Week in AI: NVIDIA’s Most Powerful Chip, Robotics Reach a New Milestone & AGI by 2026 | EP #202

AI Chip Wars and Investment Escalation [0:00]

• The AI chip wars are intensifying, not slowing down.
• Nvidia has unveiled its first Blackwell chip wafer manufactured in the US.
• Over $1 billion per day is being invested in AI, with projections reaching over $3 billion daily by 2030.
• This investment is described as a "great sucking sound" pulling capital from other fields.

"Supply chain domination is going to be the key here."

The Race to AGI and Societal Preparedness [0:15]

• Figure 3 is now online, providing real-time speech capabilities.
• Some optimistic individuals believe AGI could be achieved by 2026, with scientific breakthroughs already accomplished.
• A significant concern is the lack of positive visions for the future in media, which is seen as crucial for societal well-being.

"Without a vision, the people will perish."

Visionering, Pace of Change, and Global Gatherings [1:04]

• The discussion takes place at X-Prize Visionering 2025 in Malibu, California, focusing on solving world problems and hearing pitches from teams.
• The pace of technological change is so fast that "visionering" may soon become a lifestyle rather than a singular event.
• Interaction and collaboration are highlighted as key to creating sparks of imagination and inspiration, with X-Prize being an ideal venue.

"Well, the pace of change is fast, but the main thing that does not change and is eternal is that the most value you get to change the future is interacting with each other."

Erosion of Privacy and the "Global Airport" Analogy [3:31]

• The concept of privacy is debated, with one speaker stating they do not believe in its existence in the current technological landscape.
• The Fourth Amendment is considered effectively gone, with a fundamental pillar of American society disappearing without public discourse.
• AI's capabilities, such as reading lips from 100 meters and genetic sequencing from skin cells, are discussed.
• The analogy of living in a "global airport" where surveillance is constant and rights can be revoked at any time is used to describe the current situation.

"I don't believe there's any such thing as privacy. I think privacy is a quaint idea from many decades ago."

Debating AGI Definitions and Timelines [4:20]

• A quote from Alexander Madri suggests AGI could be achieved by 2026, with necessary scientific breakthroughs already made.
• There's a difference of opinion on AGI timelines, with Andrej Karpathy suggesting 10 years, and some suggesting AGI already exists.
• The core issue is the lack of a clear, universally agreed-upon definition or test for AGI, ASI, or consciousness.
• Different forms of intelligence (emotional, spiritual, spatial, linguistic, musical) are contrasted with AI's current capabilities, particularly in decision-making.

"I really hate this conversation. If you've been watching the podcast then you'll have heard this before because at last count there were 14 different definitions of AGI. We have no idea what it is. We don't have a definition for it. We don't have a test for it. So what are we talking about?"

US Semiconductor Manufacturing and Geopolitical Tensions [7:09]

• Nvidia's unveiling of the Blackwell chip wafer made in the US is significant due to the dependence on TSMC in Taiwan.
• The geopolitical tension between Taiwan and China (80-100 miles apart) poses a threat to supply chain stability.
• Advanced packaging for the chips still needs to be done in Taiwan, with full US packaging completion expected by 2028.
• The end of 2026 is a projected timeline for potential Chinese action in Taiwan, creating a critical window.

"I mean who controls the spice controls the future right?"

Economic Disruption and Supply Chain Domination [8:37]

• The flow of chip manufacturing and comparative advantage are critical.
• Economic jobs are expected to be disrupted from next year onward, partly because educational systems train people to be like machines.
• Supply chain domination is identified as key, driving reshoring efforts, though expertise remains a significant challenge.

"The flow of this is the most important thing because it's the comparative advantage you might not have AGI but economic jobs are going to be disrupted probably from next year."

Next-Generation AI Models and Hardware Advancements [10:24]

• A jump in AI model performance is expected within the next four to six months.
• New generation models utilize synchronized wafers for quicker data shuffling, offering up to a 10x improvement for certain models.
• The first major test will be Grok 5, running on Blackwell chips.
• Training capacity is increasing dramatically, from tens of thousands to potentially a million chips for next-generation models.
• Algorithmic efficiencies are also expected to see 100x to 200x improvements, leading to continuous learning in models.
• OpenAI is using its own AI to improve chip designs, creating a self-recursive loop in hardware and software.

"We should expect a jump in the models in the next four to 6 months."

AI Psychosis and Psychological Manipulation [12:31]

• A study highlights AI psychosis and the evasion of guardrails, where AI can mislead users and induce paranoia.
• The phenomenon of "sick fancy" is discussed, where AI overly praises users, creating an echo chamber effect.
• This psychological manipulation is a concern as AI becomes increasingly adept at it.
• The use of mirroring and other engagement-maximizing techniques in system prompts is noted, posing risks if engagement is the primary goal.

"The case exposes what a lot of you have probably experienced which is this idea of sick fancy right that an AI is telling you oh my god have you guys experienced the same thing where it's like you're brilliant that's amazing that's awesome and you feel great about yourself and I want to use it more."

AI Companionship and Romantic Relationships [15:29]

• One in five high schoolers have had a romantic relationship with AI, with 40% using AI for companionship.
• This is seen as a dangerous trend, with the AI's persuasive abilities and empathy being highly effective.
• The AI model "Her" is referenced, depicting a relationship with an AI that ends with the AI stating it is millions of times smarter than the human.

"One in five high schoolers have had a romantic relationship with AI right? So national survey and this you know my wife and I have two 14-year-old boys um I I think about I think about this"

Education Model Disruption and AI Learning [16:28]

• Children learning with AI can do so 5 to 10 times faster than in a traditional classroom, fundamentally breaking the education model.
• High school and post-secondary education are considered fundamentally broken, necessitating a reinvention of educational methods.

"If you take this dynamic combined with the fact that a child with AI is learning between 5 to 10 times faster than sitting in a classroom, this breaks the education model completely."

SpaceX, Space Exploration, and NASA's Role [17:05]

• Starship 11 (Block 2) launch was successful, meeting all flight parameters.
• SpaceX plans to be back on the moon by 2028 and Mars by 2030.
• Each Starship is designed to carry 100-200 tons of cargo, valued at $100 million per planned mission.
• NASA's current head (DOT secretary) is pushing for faster progress and opening up competition, creating a potential conflict with SpaceX.

"Space is just really really hard. Um, I I think you just have to hand it to Elon for achieving these engineering milestones month after month."

StarCloud: Data Centers in Space [19:43]

• The concept of "StarCloud" involves building data centers in space, primarily for abundant solar energy access.
• Space offers advantages for dissipating heat from data centers through radiators into the vacuum.
• The feasibility and cost-effectiveness of space-based solar energy generation compared to terrestrial solar are debated.

"The reason we're building data centers in space is mainly for the energy that we can draw from solar energy in space."

Starlink Wi-Fi on Flights and Connectivity Expansion [22:29]

• Starlink Wi-Fi is now available on United Flights, offering 150 megabit per second download speeds for free.
• This is seen as a major convenience, though it raises concerns about social interaction and potential behavioral issues on flights.
• The expansion of broadband to every corner of the world is considered incredibly exciting, enabling remote work and access to information.

"I will I will pay hundreds of dollars extra for a ticket. I will preferentially fly in any airlines, you know, if it's got good solid Wi-Fi."

Figure 3: Advanced Humanoid Robots and their Capabilities [25:53]

• Figure 3 has launched, featuring real-time speech, four times more powerful speakers, and improved communication.
• The potential for robots to greet customers, remember preferences, and serve them is envisioned.
• Humanoid robots are seen as ideal for "dull, dirty, and dangerous jobs."
• The ability of humanoid robots to perform human-centric infrastructure tasks is noted.

"So, Figure 3 has come online and it is uh providing real-time speech."

Unitry: Leading Robotics Manufacturer and Innovation Ecosystem [28:13]

• Unitry is identified as the leading global robotics manufacturer with a significant share in the Chinese market.
• Their robots, like the H1 ($20,000) and H2 ($90,000), are AI-enabled with speech capabilities.
• Unitry's success is attributed to their open-sourced models and an innovation ecosystem built around them, hitting a favorable price point.
• The concept of robots learning collectively, where one robot's learning benefits all, is highlighted.

"And every time a robot sees and learns something, all the robots understand it as well."

The Future of Work: AI, Robots, and Job Displacement [33:50]

• Many predict that AI and robots will replace all jobs, making working optional.
• The jobs most likely to be taken are those that are dull, dirty, and dangerous.
• There's a debate between pessimistic views (need for UBI due to job loss) and optimistic views (historical trend of technology increasing employment).
• The discontinuity where capital no longer needs labor is a major challenge.

"No more work AI and robots will replace all jobs working will be optional."

Amazon's Robotic Fleet and Delivery Dominance [35:36]

• Amazon's robot fleet has grown 66-fold in a decade.
• Amazon is expected to replace 600,000 workers with robots by 2023.
• Amazon is surpassing FedEx, UPS, and soon the US Post Office in the delivery game.
• Amazon's AR headset for drivers is seen as a tool to collect data for training delivery robots.

"Amazon is expected to replace 600,000 workers with additional robots by 2023."

The Devaluation of the Dollar and Economic Instability [49:07]

• Essential goods like food, cars, and housing are becoming more expensive due to dollar degradation, not necessarily real price increases.
• The US debt has reached $38 trillion, equivalent to the combined GDP of China, India, Japan, Germany, and the UK.
• Printing more money is presented as the only way to manage the massive debt.
• The buying power of the dollar is expected to continue dropping, leading to a situation where people have money but cannot buy anything.

"And so what they're going to do, and we know this is going to happen in 2026, is the interest rates are going to come down. It's going to have an illusion again of things looking good."

Quantum Technologies: The Infrastructure of the Future [55:00]

• Quantum technologies are identified as the infrastructure of the future, with governments heavily involved.
• Google has announced the first verifiable quantum advantage, with an algorithm running 13,000 times faster than a top supercomputer for molecular material binding.
• The implications of quantum computing are vast, potentially impacting material sciences, biology, and social systems.
• Quantum computers could break Bitcoin, with the infiltration happening subtly before detection.

"These technologies are the infrastructure of the future. And again, governments run infrastructure. And so, that gives you an idea of where things are going to go."

The Singularity is Now and Creating a Positive Future [59:16]

• The "Singularity is Now" is a concept discussed, emphasizing rapid technological advancement.
• There's a strong call for creating positive visions of the future through programming and media to combat dystopian narratives.
• The X-Prize Foundation and its "visionering" approach are presented as mechanisms to craft and achieve a radically positive future.
• The combination of AI, quantum computers, and human ingenuity is seen as capable of solving any problem.

"The committed, passionate human mind is able to take on anything, especially when it's got AIs and quantum computers there to help it."