TA Alpha: Kill Zones Incoming — Patience Then Greed

Volatility and Market Overview [00:00:00]

• Volatility typically spikes every six to eight weeks, but the current period is quiet. Increased algorithmic trading may further stagnate volatility, but large spikes can signal "gray or black swan" events.
• A massive spike in April 2024 was attributed to the "tariff tantrums," which presented "killer deals" on various assets, emphasizing the need to keep "dry powder" ready.

  "we're in a very quiet period and by the way as more bots and algos trade on our behalf as human beings expect this volatility to stagnate further"

QQQ and Nvidia Earnings [00:01:00]

• The QQQ trend has been downward but is starting to flatten, hinting at a potential turnaround.
• All eyes are on Nvidia's earnings, which will significantly influence market direction.
• Nvidia's results were not yet available at the time of the recording.

  "if nvidia misses today this will take a big poop"

S&P 500 and Bitcoin's Rise [00:02:00]

• The S&P 500 continues to rise due to increased money supply, though it experiences volatile moments with clear buy signals.
• Bitcoin has had a "monster week," moving out of the "blue" zone on the top and bottom indicator, signaling that the "killer stacking opportunity is closing."

  "we're out of the blue but that means the killer stacking opportunity is also closing my friends"

Bitcoin's Lilo Model and Mean Reversion [00:03:00]

• The Lilo model, anchored to the 200-day moving average, shows Bitcoin hovering around $78,847, facing resistance.
• Bitcoin's "mean reversion" is "monstrously high," a condition that has historically preceded price drops, though not instantly.

  "anytime you break the price action goes through the 200 day moving average you drop your anchor for the lilo model on exactly that level right here"

Bitcoin's Future Targets and ATR Model [00:04:00]

• The Lilo model predicts Bitcoin could reach $111,000-$112,000 within a year, though this is contingent on events unfolding as planned.
• The ATR model shows Bitcoin at level four, which, combined with Lilo's level seven, indicates resistance at the current price point.

  "level 10 this is where the model predicts the price will go within a year and that's a hundred and eleven thousand dollars one hundred and twelve thousand dollars"

Solana and Ethereum [00:05:00]

• Solana broke above $100 but fell back, facing resistance at $112 on the ATR model. It has been above the 200-day moving average for 10 months, with insane on-chain activity.
• Ethereum is facing resistance at $2481, a level that has historically acted as a ceiling. Despite a sell signal at $2536, a buy signal appeared at $2469, indicating a positive trend.

  "we are nicely above the 200-day moving average and we have not been above the 200-day moving average since october 2025"

Total Crypto Market Cap and MicroStrategy [00:06:00]

• The total crypto market cap saw an additional $600-$650 billion added in five days, driven by altcoins.
• MicroStrategy has outperformed Bitcoin recently, showing it's still a leveraged bet, despite Michael Saylor's efforts to build funds for his dividend fund.

  "the delta between these levels is an additional 600 650 billion dollars of crypto market cap was added in like five days"

Umac, Spacex, and Tesla Pair Trading [00:07:00]

• Umac shows buy signals on the 200-day moving average but has been selling off after brief runs.
• Spacex's trend turned at $137, and the speaker is creating increasingly bullish price prediction models for it, noting its volatility.
• The Tesla-Spacex pair chart is a money-maker for pair traders, with blue indicating buying Tesla and orange indicating buying Spacex.

  "spacex has turned and it's up and people are beginning to run their models"

Nvidia Earnings and Micron [00:08:00]

• Nvidia typically sells off after earnings, but this time there was no pre-earnings run, making the outcome uncertain. The speaker expects a fall to $201 or less.
• Nvidia beat earnings, revenue, and EPS, but the stock sold off, which the speaker finds "crazy."
• Micron is in "no man's land" with a sell signal, neither overbought nor oversold, requiring more buyer confidence.

  "nvidia typically for the last year or so it sells off after earnings so here's earnings sell-off here's earnings sell-off here's earnings sell-off"

Marvell, Google, and AMD [00:09:00]

• Marvell has been a "gift" all year, currently at $240, and is moving up with Nvidia after hours.
• Google's trend is down, with a sell signal present and no turn yet. Google seems to have moved away from frontier models.
• AMD, which was bullish last week, has risen from its bottom level. Targets suggest it could reach $650 in 6-12 months.

  "marvelous marvel all year this one has been a gift especially if you got it a year ago or early this year"

Alab, Palantir, and Copper [00:10:00]

• Alab's trend is turning back up after a bearish short-term outlook, with a potential rise to $320-$340.
• Palantir is defying gravity and Michael Bury's short position, with the speaker unsure why but believing it should fall back under $166.
• Copper is breaking new all-time highs and is projected to reach $10 in two to three years, considered the speaker's version of gold.

  "this thing should be selling off and it's not it is not mean reverting it is hanging tight up there out of the box"

Tesla and Live Questions [00:11:00]

• Tesla is vexing, as it should be rising for the Cybercab launch but the market isn't reacting. The speaker maintains faith in the company.
• Regarding Palantir, the speaker notes it's growing well financially but its current price action is unusual, suggesting it should take a breather but isn't.
• The speaker hedges Palantir positions by selling out-of-the-money calls, but would roll up if it breaks $190.

  "the two fastest revenue three fastest revenue growing companies over the next three years are going to be spacex palantir and tesla and that is booked and verified"

Lilo Settings and Pair Trading [00:12:00]

• Lilo settings involve anchoring the model to the 200-day moving average at the point where price action crosses it.
• The Tesla-Spacex pair chart is easier to play than the Tesla-Marvell pair, as Marvell has been trending up independently.

  "you just basically where was i here was a bitcoin lilo uh when you click on it click on the numbers you get the little blue thing here drop your 200 day moving average"

ATR Deviation and EchoStar [00:13:00]

• The speaker experiences issues with the desktop version of the ATR deviation model for FX but notes it works well for slower-moving assets like gold and commodities on longer timeframes.
• EchoStar's pair chart with Spacex shows Spacex winning, indicating that EchoStar is not a preferred investment.

  "things that move slow etfs but there's one okay so there's the gold dollar on the two day good signal no real history of this"

Per vs. Hyperliquid and Cardano [00:14:00]

• Per and Hyperliquid are showing strong performance, with a pair chart indicating buying Per when blue and Hyperliquid when orange.
• The speaker advises caution with altcoins like Cardano, calling it a "turd," and suggests Solana could be a "killer" investment.

  "be careful what you buy i think you could you know make a triple on solana not saying it will but in the next one or two years very possible"

General Advice and Closing [00:15:00]

• The speaker reiterates the video's theme: "be patient and then be greedy."
• Thanks are given to the team and viewers, with a promise to see everyone tomorrow.

  "be patient and then be greedy and that's exactly what i recommend here as well"