Scott Ritter : Can We Trust the Israel–Hamas Deal?

The transcript discusses a phase one agreement for a peace deal, involving a hostage release from Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and the return of bodies of deceased individuals to Israeli authorities. In exchange, 1,200 Palestinian prisoners are to be freed, and Israeli forces will withdraw from 70% of Gaza. The agreement also reportedly requires Hamas to disarm, though the specifics and timeline for this remain unsolidified.

Hamas's willingness to disarm is attributed to its long-standing goal of establishing a Palestinian state, a condition that this agreement reportedly facilitates. Despite past betrayals, Hamas sees this as an opportunity to achieve its objectives, with all its demands seemingly met. The deal is presented as a Hamas peace treaty, packaged by the former president.

The agreement necessitates a pathway to a two-state solution and requires international guarantees, including from the United States. The former president's commitment is seen as significant, driven by a desire for a Nobel Peace Prize. Concurrently, Israeli support in the U.S. is noted as diminishing, pressuring Israeli leadership. The analysis suggests that Hamas's actions and the shifting international perception of Israel, rather than the former president's rhetoric or policies, were the primary drivers of this potential peace plan.

• A phase one peace agreement includes the release of living hostages and bodies by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and the freeing of 1,200 Palestinian prisoners by Israel.
• Israeli forces are to withdraw from 70% of Gaza as part of the agreement.
• Hamas has reportedly agreed to disarm, a condition linked to meeting certain criteria, including Palestinian statehood.
• The establishment of a Palestinian state is presented as a primary goal for Hamas, which this agreement purportedly enables.
• The deal's progress is influenced by waning international and domestic support for Israel, and a counter-proposal from Arab nations, rather than solely by the former president's actions or statements.

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Phase One of the Peace Deal [00:50]

• The agreement involves a hostage release, with Hamas and Islamic Jihad to hand over living hostages and the bodies of those who have perished.
• In return, 1,200 Palestinian prisoners will be freed by Israeli authorities.
• Israel will withdraw from 70% of Gaza, moving to what is described as the "70% line."
• This is considered phase one of a ceasefire/peace plan, with subsequent phases to follow.

The initial phase of the peace deal focuses on a significant exchange of individuals and a partial withdrawal of forces, setting the stage for further negotiations.

My understanding is that um there will be a hostage release. that is the um Israelis that Hamas and um Islamic Jihad are currently holding, the living and the bodies of the those who have perished uh will be turned over to Israeli authorities and the Israelis will be uh freeing some 1,200 um Palestinian hostages or prisoners, whatever term you want to use.

Hamas Disarmament and Statehood [01:51]

• There is a requirement for Hamas to lay down its arms.
• Hamas has previously stated willingness to disarm if conditions, including Palestinian statehood, are met.
• The timetable and method of disarmament are still details that need to be solidified.
• The speaker suggests that Israel could potentially violate ceasefires and resume bombing if these details aren't addressed.
• The agreement, to mature, requires Hamas to be verifiably disarmed.

The question of Hamas's disarmament is central, with their willingness contingent on the realization of Palestinian statehood, and the specifics of this disarmament are yet to be finalized.

I believe that part of the agreement that Hamas has signed on and people should understand Hamas, this isn't the first time the issue of, you know, disarmament has been raised.

Hamas's Motivation and Goals [02:51]

• Hamas is willing to give up leverage, like hostages and weapons, due to its desire for a Palestinian state.
• This agreement is seen as creating the conditions for a Palestinian state, which has been Hamas's objective.
• Every demand made by Hamas has reportedly been met in this agreement, making it a "Hamas peace treaty."
• The idea that Hamas solely exists for violence is deemed absurd; they are fighting for a Palestinian state and homeland.
• This agreement creates the opportunity for a Palestinian state, explaining Hamas's willingness to proceed.

Hamas's participation in the deal is driven by their core objective of establishing a Palestinian state, with this agreement fulfilling their long-held demands.

Hamas has been fighting for a Palestinian state, for a Palestinian homeland, and this agreement creates the opportunity for that.

The Path to a Palestinian State and Israeli Politics [04:21]

• The agreement reportedly requires a pathway to a two-state solution, a concept that has been consistently rejected by certain Israeli political figures.
• If certain Israeli officials agree to a Palestinian state, it could lead to the collapse of their government.
• The agreement necessitates international commitments and guarantees, including from the United States.
• Israel retains the option to abandon the agreement, but the current geopolitical climate is described as different.
• The current U.S. president has invested significant political capital, viewing this as a path to a Nobel Peace Prize.

The deal's success hinges on a two-state solution, facing political hurdles within Israel, but bolstered by international guarantees and presidential commitment.

Um this agreement, if it's going to reach maturity, requires a pathway to a two-state solution.

Shifting U.S. Support and Israeli Strategy [05:19]

• A key factor in the ongoing negotiations is the rapidly declining support for Israel within the United States.
• The once robust infrastructure of support for Israel has diminished significantly.
• Some segments of the American population are reportedly tired of prioritizing Israel's interests.
• Israeli leadership must be cautious about their actions, as their coalition government is currently comprised of extremists.
• If Israeli leadership chooses peace, they might be able to form a new coalition that maintains their position without extremist elements.

The erosion of Israeli support in the U.S. is a critical factor influencing Israeli actions and the potential for a lasting peace agreement.

um one of the reasons why Netanyahu is even talking about this is that Israeli support in the United States is rapidly, you know, chipping away.

Perceived U.S. Military Influence [06:42]

• The former president claimed that the U.S. military was instrumental in securing the agreement.
• This is interpreted as a "peace through strength" approach, involving threats of severe consequences for Hamas.
• The movement of U.S. military aircraft into the region created a perception of military threat.
• The former president believes this show of force pushed Hamas to accept the peace deal.
• However, the speaker suggests that Hamas ultimately "won" by achieving its objectives.

The former president's assertion of military influence is seen as a tactic, but the outcome is viewed as a victory for Hamas in achieving its strategic goals.

threatening Hamas there will be hell to pay as if Gaza hasn't been subjected to hell many times over um you know there were the movements of American military aircraft into the region.

The Role of Arab Nations and Hamas's Continued Viability [09:46]

• The initial proposal of forcibly evacuating Palestinians from Gaza was met with a counter-offer from Arab nations.
• This counter-offer, which prevents forcible evacuation, is now central to the current deal.
• The deal was contingent on Hamas's continued political viability.
• Hamas agreed to a framework involving Palestinian technocrats but insisted on playing a role.
• The former president's "verbal flex" is not seen as the primary driver of this complex, ongoing negotiation.

The agreement is a result of a counter-proposal from Arab nations and a compromise that allows for Hamas's continued political relevance, rather than solely being a product of the former president's assertive diplomacy.

Uh we have a deal now because those Arab nations that put a counter offer to Trump that counter offers at play here.

The Future of Gaza and Palestinian Aspirations [11:07]

• Upon release, hostages will return to a context where Gaza is largely in ruins.
• The focus for the returning Palestinians is not on buildings but on the concept of Palestine itself.
• Gaza is envisioned as part of a free and independent Palestinian state, which has been the long-standing struggle.

The returning Palestinians are not focused on material reconstruction but on the broader aspiration of a free and independent Palestinian state.

Gaza isn't just an open air concentration camp. Gaza is going to be part of a free and independent Palestinian state.

Critiquing the Former President's Claims [12:04]

• The former president's claims of bringing peace to the world through tariffs are questioned.
• Tariffs are seen as having strengthened entities like BRICS and encouraged global decoupling from the U.S.
• The former president's pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize is viewed as living in a fantasy world.
• While acknowledging the former president's leadership, the speaker attributes the deal's progress to a counter-proposal from the Arab world.
• The former president's prior proposal to forcibly clear Gaza did prompt the Arab nations to formulate their counter-proposal.

The speaker critiques the former president's self-aggrandizing claims about peace through tariffs, attributing the current deal's progress to the influence of Arab nations' counter-proposal.

Tariffs have have brought peace to the world. I'm telling you, they brought peace to the world.

The Actual Drivers of the Peace Plan [13:54]

• The U.S. has a unique role in making Israel "play responsibly," not through sanctions but through other means.
• Hamas's master plan involved drawing Israel into Gaza to highlight the horrific reality of occupation, causing international support to wane.
• This plan worked because Israel recognized its diminishing international support and domestic U.S. constituency.
• The panic caused by waning support is why an Israeli prime minister publicly addressed U.S. social media.
• The former president's actions and rhetoric are seen as less impactful than Hamas's strategy and the resulting shift in Israeli public perception and international standing.

The true impetus for the peace plan lies in Hamas's strategic maneuvers and the subsequent decline in Israel's international and domestic support, rather than solely the former president's pronouncements.

But I think when we do a cause effect analysis of what actually pushed this peace plan forward uh and you know etc. It's not going to be about Trump tariffing people and flexing muscles.