Are We In A Recession?

Recent economic revisions reveal that fewer jobs were added to the economy than previously expected. The 2024 benchmarking process lowered the estimate of job growth by nearly 600,000 jobs, and the 2025 revision is projected to be the largest since 2009 in percentage terms. These downward revisions were particularly pronounced in the services sector, with leisure and hospitality adding 176,000 fewer jobs, and the retail industry appearing to have lost jobs instead of gaining them.

The current economic climate is further complicated by the impact of tariffs, which are beginning to significantly affect industries most exposed to them. Mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade all experienced job losses in August alone. This trend is not new, as tariff-exposed industries have been losing jobs since the trade war began, with US manufacturing showing job losses for four consecutive months following the announcement of high tariffs in April.

Adding to these concerns is the emerging threat of AI, which is anticipated to cause widespread job displacement, especially for entry-level workers. This, combined with an economy that has been weaker than widely portrayed and the negative effects of tariffs, suggests a challenging economic future. The speaker believes this situation will lead to significant unemployment, leaving political figures unprepared and potentially causing their public standing to plummet.

• Job growth estimates have been significantly revised downward, with nearly 600,000 fewer jobs added in the 2024 benchmarking and the 2025 revision expected to be the largest since 2009.
• The services sector, including leisure and hospitality (176,000 fewer jobs) and retail (job losses instead of gains), has seen substantial downward revisions.
• Tariffs are directly impacting industries like mining and logging (-6,000 jobs in August), construction (-7,000 jobs), manufacturing (-12,000 jobs), and wholesale trade (-12,000 jobs).
• US manufacturing has lost jobs for four consecutive months since high tariffs were announced in April.
• The rise of AI is expected to cause a "tsunami" of unemployment, particularly affecting entry-level workers.

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Job Growth Revisions [00:00]

• Efforts to engineer an American manufacturing renaissance and cause a jobs boom are not happening.
• Economists view these efforts as off to a slow start, or even counterproductive, leading to uncertainty for businesses regarding tariffs, which paralyzes hiring.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner was fired due to revisions showing far fewer jobs added than previously expected.
• New reports indicate that a significant number of jobs were added to the economy through these revisions.
• The revisions cover March 2024 through March of the current year, with the bulk of the data falling under the current administration's tenure.

The new data also shows that employers added $911,000 uh thousand fewer jobs um in that time period than previously expected. That's what the revision is. And that implies that the economy only added 850,000 jobs during that time, which is half as many as previously reported.

Economic Indicators and Trends [01:36]

• This marks the second unusually large annual revision in a row, which is not a good sign for the economy.
• The 2024 benchmarking process lowered the estimate of job growth by nearly 600,000 jobs.
• The 2025 revision is expected to be the largest since 2009 in percentage terms.
• Adjustments are often larger during economic turning points when surveys struggle to keep pace with rapid shifts in hiring and firing patterns.
• Downward revisions were pronounced in specific sectors, with the services sector showing more significant revisions.

Sector-Specific Job Losses [02:24]

• The leisure and hospitality sector added 176,000 fewer jobs than previously believed.
• The retail industry now appears to have lost jobs during the period covered by the revision (March 2024 to March 2025), rather than showing a narrow gain.
• There are warning signs of the economy slowing down.
• Last Friday, employers added just 22,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%, its highest level in nearly four years.

The downward revisions uh were pronounced in specific sectors, right? So, you saw revisions across the board, but where you saw more of a re of a revision is in the services sector.

Impact of Tariffs on the Economy [03:14]

• Tariffs are beginning to have a real impact on the US economy.
• The dismal jobs report on Friday was especially grim for industries most exposed to tariffs.
• Mining and logging lost 6,000 jobs in August alone.
• Construction lost 7,000 jobs in August.
• Manufacturing and wholesale trade each lost 12,000 jobs in August.
• This month was not an anomaly; tariff-exposed industries started losing jobs shortly after the trade war began and it has continued.
• US manufacturing has lost jobs for four months in a row, with employment unchanged in April, the month high tariffs were announced.
• This outcome is the exact opposite of what is desired by the White House.

Look at uh mining and logging. Lost 6,000 jobs in August alone. 7,000 lost in construction, manufacturing and wholesale trade losing 12,000 jobs a piece in one month.

Broader Economic Concerns and Future Outlook [04:18]

• The individual is not lashing out at the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner as they might have previously, likely due to the certainty of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates because of sluggish job numbers.
• These tariffs are emerging at a time when AI is replacing many workers, especially entry-level positions.
• Coders in Silicon Valley are losing their jobs at a record pace.
• The economy was never as strong as portrayed on television, regardless of the administration.
• Wealth inequality has continued to grow, with Republican voters now expressing dislike for income inequality and wanting it addressed.
• The current economic situation means that while the rich are becoming even richer, many others cannot afford mortgages or unexpected expenses.
• Housing and grocery prices continue to become more unaffordable.
• The speaker predicts that the economy will only get worse, not better, especially when AI-driven unemployment numbers begin to hit, which is anticipated to be a "tsunami."

So, it's only going to get worse from here, not better. And you can quote me on it. And if I'm wrong, come back and tell me.