Russia’s NEW ALLIANCE With Iran & Turkey — A Coordinated Move That REWRITES Regional Power Overnight

The Rise of a New Regional Power Bloc [0:00]

• Russia, Iran, and Turkey are developing unprecedented systematic operational coordination that is fundamentally altering regional power structures in the Middle East and Caucasus.
• This coordination spans military matters, economic policy, and regional security, offering a genuine alternative to American influence.
• A decade ago, these nations were engaged in proxy wars in Syria; now, they exhibit closer coordination with each other than Turkey does with the United States.

"Russia, Iran, and Turkey, three countries with vastly different political systems, historical grievances, and religious identities have developed a level of coordination that's reshaping the entire region."

Syria as the Catalyst for Operational Coordination [0:21]

• The Astana process, initiated in 2017 by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, established a diplomatic framework for managing the Syrian conflict, sidelining UN and Western initiatives.
• This process has led to over 20 rounds of talks, the establishment of de-escalation zones, coordinated ceasefires, and a mechanism for dividing influence and managing proxy conflicts.
• Turkey controls significant areas in northern Syria with apparent Russian and Iranian acceptance, serving their interests by preventing Kurdish autonomy and blocking American influence.

Libya and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Expanding Coordination [03:44]

• A similar pattern of coordination is observed in Libya, where, despite backing opposing sides, Turkey and Russia established deconfliction mechanisms, leading to a de facto partition that serves their interests.
• Russia gains access to Libyan oil infrastructure and potential naval facilities, while Turkey maintains influence over western Libya and controls migration routes to Europe.
• The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war demonstrated this coordination, with Turkey's strong backing of Azerbaijan leading to a decisive victory over Russian treaty ally Armenia, facilitated by restrained Russian intervention.

"Why would Russia allow its treaty ally to lose significant territory? Because Moscow and Ankara had coordinated."

Economic Integration Bolstering Political Coordination [06:39]

• Russia and Iran's bilateral trade has grown significantly, exceeding $5 billion by 2023, with Russia supplying advanced weapons and Iran providing Shahed drones, alongside potential joint weapons development.
• Russia and Turkey maintain extensive economic ties, with Turkey importing a substantial amount of natural gas from Russia and Russia building Turkey's first nuclear power plant at Akkuyu, a $20 billion project.
• This economic interdependence constrains Turkey's foreign policy, as evidenced by its refusal to fully join Western sanctions against Russia after the Ukraine invasion due to reliance on Russian gas, tourists, and trade.

Military Cooperation Beyond Regional Conflicts [09:56]

• Russia's sale of the S400 air defense system to Turkey, a move that caused a crisis with NATO and led to Turkey's expulsion from the F-35 program, highlights Turkey's prioritization of its relationship with Russia.
• Russia has also upgraded Turkey's military equipment and provided training, with discussions ongoing for joint defense industry projects.
• Iran has received Russian air defense systems and other weapons, with both countries negotiating for additional Russian military equipment.

Underlying Incentives for Coordination [10:57]

• A primary driver is the shared opposition to American dominance in the region, with all three viewing the U.S. as an obstacle to their respective ambitions.
• The prevalence of authoritarian governance models in Russia, Iran, and Turkey creates an ideological affinity, as they see Western democracy promotion as a threat to their regime survival.
• A pragmatic acceptance of spheres of influence, based on traditional great power principles rather than universal values, facilitates negotiation and deal-making.

"When the United States is weakened or distracted, all three benefit. When American initiatives fail, they gain space to operate."

Complementary Capabilities Forging a Formidable Bloc [13:38]

• Russia provides conventional military power, including air forces and air defense systems.
• Iran offers asymmetric capabilities like militia networks, ballistic missiles, and drones, along with ideological influence.
• Turkey contributes NATO-standard military equipment, economic connections, and influence over Sunni populations and Turkic-speaking peoples.
• Together, these capabilities create a formidable bloc capable of covering the full spectrum of power that none could achieve independently.

Profound Implications for American Interests [14:37]

• Approximately 900 U.S. troops in Syria, supporting Kurdish-led forces, are in a region where Russian, Turkish, and Iranian forces are coordinated, leaving American forces potentially surrounded.
• Kurdish allies, crucial in defeating ISIS, are increasingly vulnerable as Turkey launches military operations against them, with Russia and Iran not intervening as it serves their interest in limiting American influence.
• Regional conflicts are increasingly managed without American participation or consultation, such as the Astana process and the 3+3 format for the South Caucasus.

"The question isn't whether this coordination will continue. The incentives are too strong."

A Shifting Global Order and the Future [19:15]

• The infrastructure being built, including pipelines and nuclear power plants, and economic and military relationships, are creating long-lasting dependencies and institutional ties.
• The coordination is driven by Russia's need for regional partners to offset Western isolation, Iran's need to counter American pressure, and Turkey's pursuit of regional ambitions.
• The critical question for American policymakers is whether they will recognize this new reality and develop appropriate strategies, or continue to operate under outdated assumptions of American primacy.

"The world where American power was uncontested is gone and it's not coming back."