‘THIS IS DOING REAL DAMAGE’: GOP rep says shutdown costing $15 BILLION a day

The ongoing government shutdown, now in its third week and day 15, has led to concerning incidents at national parks with squatters and illicit base jumpers reportedly taking over areas. The Department of Interior is investigating these reports, while a coalition is advocating for park closures until staffing levels are restored. The Office of Management and Budget is preparing for further federal layoffs. This shutdown is viewed as a national security issue, impacting critical areas like Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation (RDT&E) by diverting $8 billion, and potentially leading to furloughed analysts and targeting specialists, which increases the risk of security lapses.

There is no current enthusiasm for negotiating Obamacare subsidies to end the shutdown. The argument against these subsidies highlights significant increases in costs for individuals, with income caps already at $135,000 and potential hikes from $800 to $1,800 annually for those making that amount. Republicans passed a bill to fund the government and pay troops, expecting Democrats to do the same, noting their past support for such measures. The shutdown is also inflicting considerable damage on the economy, estimated at $15 billion per day in lost GDP production, with 330,000 Department of War civilians furloughed.

The administration is utilizing repurposed funds to ensure troops receive their paychecks for this pay period, but this is a one-time solution, and future payments are uncertain if Democrats pursue legal action to block them. The Republican stance remains to pass a clean Continuing Resolution (CR) to reopen the government, emphasizing the need for policy debates to occur with an open government, not as leverage for shutdowns. The situation is described as Democrats acting childishly by withholding cooperation and engaging in political maneuvering rather than addressing the core issue of keeping the government operational.

• The government shutdown has entered its third week, day 15, causing issues like squatters and base jumpers at national parks, prompting calls for park closures.
• The shutdown is considered a national security issue, with $8 billion in RDT&E funds diverted, impacting the intelligence community by furloughing analysts and specialists.
• There is no current support for negotiating Obamacare subsidies to end the shutdown, citing concerns about rising costs for individuals.
• The economic impact is significant, with an estimated loss of $15 billion per day in GDP production and 330,000 Department of War civilians furloughed.
• Military personnel are receiving paychecks via repurposed funds, but this is a temporary measure, and future payments are uncertain if legal challenges arise.

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Government Shutdown Impacts [00:01]

• The government shutdown has reached week three, day 15.
• Reports indicate squatters and illicit base jumpers have taken over parts of national parks due to reduced staffing.
• The Department of Interior is aware of these reports and plans to investigate.
• A coalition is advocating for the closure of all national parks until staffing is restored.
• The Office of Management and Budget is preparing for more federal layoffs.

This section details the immediate consequences of the government shutdown, highlighting disruptions at national parks and anticipated federal workforce reductions.

Anytime we have a shutdown, it's going to be a national security issue.

National Security and Funding Diversion [01:00]

• Any government shutdown is considered a national security issue.
• $8 billion in Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation (RDT&E) funds were diverted to pay troops.
• This diversion has trade-offs for national security, with significant implications for departments like Energy.
• There are no "free tradeoffs" when the government is shut down due to political decisions.
• The government needs to be reopened for a fully staffed, fully functioning national security apparatus.

This part of the discussion focuses on how the shutdown and budget reallocations directly compromise national security capabilities.

Obamacare Subsidies and Negotiation Stalemate [01:41]

• There is no enthusiasm to negotiate Obamacare subsidies as a means to end the government shutdown.
• The suggestion is to discuss policy while the government is open, not to use a shutdown as leverage.
• Misunderstandings surround the Obamacare subsidies, specifically regarding income caps.
• The current income caps are $135,000, and a proposed increase could raise annual costs for individuals.
• For example, someone paying $800 a year could see their cost rise to $1,800 a year if making $135,000.
• House Republicans passed a bill three and a half weeks prior to fund the government and pay troops, expecting Democrats to do the same.
• Democrats have voted for similar funding measures 13 times in the last four and a half years.

This segment outlines the lack of willingness to link Obamacare subsidies to the shutdown resolution and criticizes the current proposed changes.

Impact on Intelligence and Shutdown Duration [02:41]

• A government shutdown is undeniably a problem for national security.
• Furloughing analysts and targeting specialists in the intelligence community creates significant issues.
• A lack of sufficient "eyes on any particular issue" statistically increases the chances of something going wrong.
• There is no clear off-ramp for the shutdown if Republicans do not move and Democrats believe maintaining it serves their interests.
• Staff has been advised to prepare for a shutdown lasting up to two months.
• 0% no-interest loans are being advised for government employees due to the uncertain off-ramp.

This section elaborates on the direct operational risks within the intelligence community during a shutdown and anticipates a potentially extended duration.

Potential Off-Ramps and Economic Costs [03:53]

• There are a couple of natural off-ramps for Democrats.
• One potential off-ramp is after the "no kings" rally.
• Another off-ramp is after November 1st, when COVID-era healthcare subsidies are set to expire.
• These emergency subsidies were intended to sunset in 2025, and Democrats could not make them permanent within their own party for reasons of cost and qualification.
• A natural backs stop is Thanksgiving.
• The shutdown is causing real damage to the country, costing the economy $15 billion per day in GDP production.
• 330,000 Department of War civilians are furloughed, with incredible impacts.

This part of the discussion identifies potential timelines for resolution and quantifies the severe economic repercussions of the ongoing shutdown.

Military Pay and Legal Challenges [05:04]

• Military personnel are expected to receive their mid-month paychecks today, with funds repurposed to ensure payment during the shutdown.
• This is a one-shot action, and the funds are not infinitely available for repeat use.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson dares Democrats to challenge the administration's move to pay troops.
• There is a concern that Democrats might sue to stop the payment of troops, which is described as "insanity."
• If Democrats sue, it is uncertain if the administration can repeat the payment process in the next pay period.
• The Republican perspective is to vote for a clean Continuing Resolution (CR).
• Republicans previously voted for CRs 12 times under President Biden, showing respect.
• The expectation is for that same respect to be reciprocated, which is currently not happening.

This section addresses the immediate concern of military pay and the potential legal hurdles that could prevent future payments, highlighting a perceived lack of reciprocity from Democrats.

Political Motivations and Republican Stance [06:36]

• The "no kings" rally is suggested as a potential motivation for the shutdown, with an aim to rally protesters against the current administration.
• The statement "every day the shutdown goes on, it gets better for Democrats" implies political calculation over national interest.
• Republicans acknowledge past responsibility for shutdowns but have learned that they do not help anyone or the American people.
• The focus is on keeping the government open and fixing the issues.
• Policy considerations and debate should happen when the government is open.

This final segment delves into the political strategy behind the shutdown, emphasizing the Republican commitment to keeping the government operational and conducting policy discussions under normal circumstances.

Middle East Peace Deal and Hostages [07:20]

• A peace deal in the Middle East involving President Trump is mentioned, though its significance is framed as seemingly small compared to other issues.
• Seven deceased hostages have been identified after release by Hamas.
• Israel's IDF states that one of the released bodies does not match any of the hostages.
• Remaining hostages, including two American citizens, are believed to still be held by Hamas.
• President Trump is demanding Hamas release the remaining hostages and permanently disarm.
• A post on Truth Social by President Trump details the return of 20 hostages, notes the dead have not been returned as promised, and states "Phase two begins right now."
• Speaker Mike Johnson highlighted global efforts to nominate President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

This part of the transcript shifts to international affairs, discussing a peace initiative in the Middle East, the status of hostages, and diplomatic efforts, with a mention of President Trump's role.

Complexity of Middle East Conflict [08:09]

• Moving forward with the Middle East situation is expected to be complicated.
• There's a historical cycle of repeated violence and terrorism, with a movement back into terror once peace negotiations begin.
• There is some hope, as President Trump has used his force and leverage effectively to bring both sides to the table.
• This is considered a historic peace agreement that needs to hold.
• President Trump is doing everything in his power to ensure the agreement's success.

This concluding segment reflects on the challenges and hopes surrounding the Middle East peace efforts, acknowledging the effectiveness of the current administration's diplomatic approach.