Gigantic revision signals US job growth much weaker than believed

A preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a significant adjustment to job creation figures, indicating the U.S. labor market was weaker than previously understood. This revision, amounting to nearly 1 million fewer jobs added year-over-year through March, marks the largest annual revision on record.

The sectors most affected by this downward revision include trade, transportation, and utilities, which saw 226,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. Leisure and hospitality experienced a shortfall of 176,000 jobs, and professional and business services were down 158,000 jobs. These adjustments stem from the Bureau's efforts to reconcile survey data with more precise tax filing data, a process complicated by declining survey response rates and the exclusion of undocumented workers from tax filings.

While such revisions are typical, the magnitude of this particular adjustment has prompted concern, with some suggesting it could signal an economic downturn. The process of data collection and revision is complex, and the final tally for the period will be reported in February.

• The U.S. labor market added nearly 1 million fewer jobs than originally reported for the year through March.
• This represents the largest annual revision on record.
• Sectors with the largest downward revisions include trade, transportation, and utilities (-226,000 jobs), leisure and hospitality (-176,000 jobs), and professional business services (-158,000 jobs).
• Reasons for the revision include merging survey data with tax filing data and the exclusion of undocumented workers from tax filings.
• Concerns have been raised that these revised numbers could indicate the economy is entering a recession.

Related Video Summary

• Paramount Firing 3,000 Workers RIGHT NOW - Mass Job Layoffs AGAIN
• Are We In A Recession?
• Revised job numbers raise new concerns about economic slowdown
• An economy that works for everyone is not a fantasy – it’s a choice

Labor Market Revision [00:00]

• A preliminary report suggests the U.S. labor market is not as strong as previously appeared.
• The U.S. added nearly 1 million fewer jobs than originally reported for the year through March.
• This adjustment is described as "gigantic."
• If this holds through February's final tally, it would be the largest annual revision ever.
• The economy, in terms of the jobs market, was "a lot weaker than we had originally expected."

According to a preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. added nearly 1 million fewer jobs than originally reported for the year through March. This is a gigantic adjustment that we're talking about here, and if it holds through February, when the final tally is reported, this would mark the largest annual revision ever.

Magnitude and Averaging of the Revision [00:53]

• Today's report is an annual report that comes out every year, with revisions done by the BLS for about 90 years.
• This particular revision is atypical because it is the largest on record: 911,000 jobs to the downside, meaning fewer jobs were added.
• Averaged out, this is about 76,000 fewer jobs added each month over the 12-month period.
• The time period primarily falls under the Biden administration, with a few months under the Trump administration.

But today's report is an annual report. It comes out every single year, and there's been some sort of revisions that the BLS has done for the better part of 90 years. Now, what is a little atypical about this report is that the revision is so large, it is the largest on record, 911,000 jobs.

Sectors Affected by Job Shortfalls [01:27]

• Sectors that saw the steepest number of jobs lost, in terms of what was initially thought to be there but wasn't, include:
  • Trade, transportation, and utilities: 226,000 fewer jobs.
  • Leisure and hospitality: 176,000 fewer jobs than initially reported.
  • Professional and business services: 158,000 fewer jobs than initially reported.

Now, sectors that really saw the steepest number of jobs, lost in terms of what we thought was going to be there, but actually didn't end up being there, was trade, transportation and utilities, 226,000 fewer jobs there, leisure and hospitality, 176,000 fewer jobs than initially reported.

Reasons for Revisions and Data Collection [01:57]

• Revisions certainly do happen, but a large revision to the downside is noted.
• One reason for this is the BLS's reliance on survey data from businesses.
• Some newer companies may have overestimated hiring in their initial surveys.
• The response rate for survey data has dropped in recent years.
• The BLS is now merging survey data with more pointed tax filing data provided by businesses.
• Tax filings from companies will not report undocumented workers, who constitute a large portion of the labor force and will not be counted in this report.
• This exclusion of undocumented workers is a reason why the numbers can be revised lower.

One of the reasons or a couple reasons, rather that this does happen is because the Bureau of Labor Statistics is really trying to work with survey data that they get from businesses. So some newer companies may have suggested that they were hiring more people than they actually did. And that survey data, the response rate has really dropped in recent years. So they're trying to merge survey data with now in this report... much clearer and much more pointed tax filing data that businesses provide. And they're trying to merge those two and trying to paint a clearer picture, but also in those tax filings, from companies, they will not be reporting undocumented workers.

Data Accuracy and Commissioner's Role [03:13]

• There is no reason to doubt this new data; the numbers changing up and down is part of the process to achieve a more accurate representation of the jobs market as new data comes in.
• The BLS aims to get to a more accurate picture with more data points.
• The final annual number for the labor market will be reported in February 2026.
• The commissioner of the BLS does not have oversight over data collection and is not involved in the data itself.
• The commissioner sees the jobs report data only on the Wednesday before it is released on a Friday.
• A former BLS commissioner under President Trump stated he was locked out of the data collection process when he was commissioner.
• Commissioners have little involvement in the process.
• The BLS could benefit from an upgrade and modernization of data collection to make it more timely and accurate in initial reporting.
• The Trump administration had indicated they would look into modernizing data collection.

And that is because as a viewer at home, you may be saying, wait a minute, these numbers keep changing up and down, but that's actually to get the numbers to more of an accurate representation of the jobs market. As new data comes in, more surveys come in, more data points come in. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is able to get to a more accurate picture of the jobs market.

Economic Implications and Future Outlook [04:59]

• The size of the revisions is what is raising eyebrows.
• There's an alert that the JP Morgan Chase CEO believes these numbers could mean the economy is entering a recession.

So the Trump administration says that they are going to look into that. But we know that President Trump was pretty unhappy with that July jobs report that did show revisions. Also, Brianna, worth pointing out that that is very typical with this report. In particular, it's the size of the revisions that is raising some eyebrows. Yeah, certainly. and more than that, I think I'm just reading an alert JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that these numbers, in these numbers could mean the economy is entering a recession.