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SCOTT RITTER: We Don't Control the Skies Over Iran!

SCOTT RITTER: We Don't Control the Skies Over Iran!

Daniel Davis / Deep Dive

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Video Summary

The video argues that current military operations, particularly potential engagements with Iran, are characterized by a severe lack of planning, inadequate resources, and questionable justification, leading to a high probability of failure and significant loss of life. It criticizes leadership for making up war plans as they go, sending troops into dangerous situations without proper support, and lacking a "just cause" for conflict, which ultimately erodes morale and can lead to profound psychological damage for soldiers. An alarming statistic is that a conflict with Iran could require between 900,000 to 1.2 million troops. The discussion also highlights a deep concern about the potential for war crimes and a disregard for international law and the Constitution by current leadership.

Short Highlights

  • Military operations are being conducted without a pre-existing war plan, making them up as they go.
  • Significant troop numbers would be required to defeat Iran, estimated between 900,000 to 1.2 million.
  • The lack of a just cause for conflict and the potential for war crimes are highlighted as critical issues.
  • Past military failures, like the operation in Cambodia, are cited as examples of poorly planned missions with dire outcomes.
  • The speaker argues current leadership, specifically mentioning Pete Hegseth, is incompetent and potentially leading the US towards war crimes and unconstitutional actions.

Key Details

Lack of Planning and Resource Deficiencies [0:00]

  • Current military actions are being executed without a coherent plan, with decisions made reactively.
  • There's a critical shortage of essential munitions like cruise missiles and joint standoff weapons.
  • Iranian air defense systems are active and posing threats, downing drones and impacting aircraft operations.
  • Military leaders are accused of engaging in "peacetime war games" without understanding the realities of execution.
  • The absence of a pre-planned strategy means forces are improvising, leading to potentially disastrous outcomes.

    "There is no war plan. We are making it up as we go along."

Inadequate Force Structure and Deployment Issues [0:57]

  • A proper military plan would involve immediate deployment of overwhelming force, not a three-week delay.
  • Taking territory requires a phased approach with multiple Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs), escalating to a division's worth of troops.
  • The current deployment of only two MEUs is insufficient for offensive operations, risking the lives of Marines.
  • Airborne and Ranger units are also deemed vulnerable and likely to suffer heavy casualties in an invasion.
  • Even elite units like Delta Force faced detection and compromised missions in past operations like Desert Storm.

    "The plan involves logistics and a whole bunch of other stuff that just isn't happening."

The Illusion of Diplomacy Through Force [03:01]

  • The argument that physical troop presence magically enhances diplomacy is questioned, with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cited.
  • The presence of Marines is intended to provide leverage for negotiations, but their limited numbers diminish their impact.
  • Rockets and missiles are still being fired from Houthi, Hezbollah, and direct Iranian sources, threatening regional allies.
  • The speaker advocates for the complete dismantling of these threatening systems.
  • The idea of taking down Iran's entire system would require at least a brigade, contrasting with the scale of current deployments.

    "Mr. Wickoff's position is much stronger when there's a bunch of Marines sitting on your doorstep."

Arrogance, Ignorance, and a Lack of Just Cause [04:25]

  • A combination of arrogance and ignorance is seen as a flaw in leadership.
  • Americans need a "just cause" to excel, and current military actions may not qualify, even with proficiency.
  • The current situation is likened to cheering for Nazis, as it's framed as a war of aggression, the same crime for which Nazis were prosecuted.
  • The notion that 4,000 Marines can meaningfully affect the outcome of a battle against Iran is dismissed as naive.
  • It's estimated that 900,000 to 1.2 million troops would be needed to physically defeat Iran.

    "Americans understand we're the best when we a have a just cause."

The Importance of Logistics and Redundancy [05:57]

  • Military success relies heavily on logistics, not just boots on the ground with weapons.
  • Fuel, maintenance, and repair systems are critical and require meticulous planning and pre-positioning.
  • Multiple contingency plans (Plan A, B, C, D) are necessary due to the high risk of equipment loss, like an LST being hit.
  • The current situation lacks these fundamental elements, making it a "tragic joke."
  • The hope is that no military commander would actually execute the current discussed orders.

    "You got to put things on the ground. You got to put fuel. You got to put all the stuff that makes stuff work."

Historical Parallels: The Mayaguez Incident [06:50]

  • The 1975 capture of the Mayaguez by the Khmer Rouge serves as a cautionary tale.
  • An attempted rescue mission using a Marine battalion landing team resulted in heavy casualties and the loss of three Marines.
  • Intelligence regarding enemy numbers (30-50) was grossly underestimated, with the actual number being 300-500.
  • The mission devolved into a losing day-long battle, resulting in withdrawal and abandonment of personnel.
  • This incident illustrates the dangers of underestimating adversaries and insufficient force deployment.

    "That's what will happen if we go into co into Car Island or any other place. We don't have the forces to do this."

The Erosion of Morale and the Concept of a "Just Cause" [08:31]

  • Troops fight for their immediate comrades and the mission, not necessarily grand geopolitical reasons.
  • The notion of fighting for one's "future" or "children" is presented as a justification that may not resonate with the reality on the ground.
  • Morale plummets when soldiers realize they've been betrayed, there's no plan, and they are abandoned.
  • The Vietnam War is cited as an example where initial belief in the mission eroded, leading to loss of faith and a perception of being on the wrong side.
  • The collapse of morale in Vietnam took a decade to recover from militarily.

    "Um, you know, I don't think they they spent too much time worrying about the grander uh you know, geopolitical consequences of what they're doing or what's right and wrong."

The Betrayal of Sending Troops Without a Plan [14:10]

  • The ultimate betrayal is sending young Americans to war without a plan or legitimate cause, leading to their deaths and injuries.
  • War is inherently destructive and requires soldiers to do unnatural things.
  • Soldiers can cope with the consequences of war if they believe they fought for a "just cause" and made a worthy sacrifice.
  • The experience of killing women and children for no reason can break a person, leading to broken spirits and increased veteran suicide rates.
  • Past wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are deemed unjust, with actions like kicking down doors and killing civilians cited as examples.

    "But what happens when you look in the mirror and you say, 'Everything was a lie.'"

The Cycle of Abandonment and Unjust Wars [17:35]

  • Society claims to support veterans, but often abandons them, especially when they return "screwed up" from war.
  • The best way to support veterans is to prevent them from being sent to unjust wars in the first place.
  • The coarseness of the language used is necessary because it reflects the reality of the situation.
  • Politicians who advocate for war with little personal consequence are criticized.

    "No, we don't [support veterans]. And the best way to support a veteran is to make sure we don't send them to an unjust war."

Leadership Incompetence and Potential for War Crimes [20:30]

  • The promotion of unqualified individuals, like Pete Hegseth, is seen as a critical issue.
  • Hegseth is described as incompetent, projecting his religion onto the military, and possibly leading the US into war crimes.
  • His past actions, including operational planning on unsecured signals and lying about it, are highlighted as disqualifying.
  • The notion of "no rules of engagement" and "no mercy" are seen as projections of war crimes.
  • The speaker calls for accountability, suggesting Hegseth should be arrested and imprisoned.

    "He's a disgrace to the profession that he once served in. He's a disgrace to the profession he ostensibly leads today as Secretary of Defense because he's not the Secretary of War."

Constitutional Violations and the Absence of Diplomacy [23:12]

  • The current administration operates outside the rule of law and the Constitution.
  • There was no imminent threat from Iran that would justify military action under the War Powers Act.
  • Diplomatic efforts and a deal with Iran were undermined.
  • Actions are seen as violations of the UN Charter and international law, including nuclear non-proliferation treaties.
  • The speaker argues that the US is on the wrong side of history and needs to correct course to avoid disaster.

    "So, there's no imminent threat. This was this is straight up unconstitutional as the day is long."

Call for Accountability and the End of America [25:20]

  • The public has the power to hold leaders accountable through their choices as consumers and voters.
  • Companies that hire retired military leaders without accountability should be boycotted.
  • The current trajectory, if uncorrected, represents the "end of America as we know it."
  • The only way accountability may come is through disaster if the nation hits "the rocks."

    "We the people of the United States, we vote. We buy. We've sort of given up on that."

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